Exchange quotations for soybeans continue to fall, which puts pressure on purchase prices in Ukraine

Increased rainfall in Brazil boosts soybean planting and eases speculative pressure on quotes, which fell 4% for the week.

According to the Conab agency, as of October 6 in Brazil, 5.1% of the planned area was sown with soybeans (10.1% last year), while in the state of Mato Grosso - only 2.1% (14% last year), which is the worst indicator since 2015 /16 MR. There is still no significant precipitation in the central regions of the country, but the front will bring rains and lower temperatures in the next few days, particularly in the state of Mato Grosso, which will allow sowing to be accelerated.

November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday fell 1.8% to $373.4/t (-4% for the week), which corresponds to last month's level. Favorable weather and a strong U.S. soybean harvest are improving production prospects.

As of October 6, 47% of soybean crops were threshed in the US (37% last year), which exceeds the 44% predicted by analysts.

Yesterday, oil prices fell by 4.9%, and December soybean oil futures in Chicago - by 3.5%, which will increase the pressure on soybean quotes.

In Ukraine, on October 4, 4.3 million tons of soybeans were harvested from 1.9 million hectares or 73% of the area with a yield of 2.26 tons/ha. According to forecasts, this year's harvest will exceed 6 million tons.

Export purchase prices for GMO soybeans in Black Sea ports rose to UAH 18,300-18,600/t last week, but fell to UAH 18,000-18,300/t or $390-395/t on Monday, while processors raised prices to UAH 17,500-18,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory.

Farmers are holding back on soybean sales in anticipation of rising soybean prices in line with sunflower prices, but export demand for GMO soybeans remains low, making it difficult for Ukrainian exporters to find buyers, especially given the decline in U.S. soybean prices.

In September, soybean exports from Ukraine grew by 48% compared to August to 243,000 tons, which is the highest figure since March 2024.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans during the week remained at $455-465/t or UAH 21,800-22,000/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, while processors increased their prices by UAH 300-500/t to UAH 21,500-22,000 /t with delivery to the factory.