Rapeseed prices rise due to delayed deliveries, but in Ukraine, deteriorating logistics are pushing down prices
Despite forecasts of large global rapeseed production in the 2026/27 MY, plants in the EU are experiencing a supply shortage due to the blockade of exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the delay in harvesting in Canada. Therefore, Ukrainian farmers need to take advantage of high prices and accelerate export sales before Canada and Australia increase supply. The weather in Australia is conducive to the development of canola crops, so analysts have increased the harvest forecast to 8 million tons (compared to 7.68 million tons last season), which will allow increasing supplies to the EU. It should also be noted that the decrease in oil prices over the past 7 days by 7.9% to the level of $ 100.5 / barrel will increase the pressure on quotes.
November rapeseed futures in Paris rose by 1% to €556.25/t or $639/t (+3.3% month-on-month) during the week amid rising quotes in Canada, delayed deliveries from European suppliers due to low river water levels and delayed deliveries from Ukraine.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange rose 1.5% to CAD 835/t or $595/t (+8.4% month-on-month) on the back of a severe delay in the canola harvest caused by rainfall. Drier weather is expected this week, but rain will continue to affect crop quality and could reduce yields.
In Ukraine, processors are reducing domestic demand for rapeseed, as they have a better margin when processing cheap sunflower. Therefore, prices for rapeseed (with an oil content of 44%) have decreased to 19,000-21,000 UAH/t, and exporters are offering 20,500-21,000 UAH/t EXW - elevators in the western regions.
Export demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine during the week remained at the level of $500-520/t or 22,000-22,500 UAH/t with delivery to Danube ports, and $500-520/t or 22,000-23,000 UAH/t - with delivery to the terminals of the western border.
It should be noted that prices for deliveries to the port of Constanta (Romania) by dump trucks remain at the level of €520-525/t or $590-600/t (depending on the delivery date) due to the large supply of Ukrainian and Moldovan rapeseed, while demand prices for deliveries to factories in Germany and the Baltic countries have increased to €525-535/t.
In 17 days of September, Ukraine exported 196 thousand tons of rapeseed (292.6 thousand tons in August) and 82 thousand tons of rapeseed oil, which confirms the predicted high export rates.
The increased supply of sunflower, soybeans, and corn increases the need for road and rail transport, so the cost of logistics continues to grow, so Ukrainian farmers need to quickly take advantage of high rapeseed prices in Europe and affordable logistics.
