Wheat stock quotes are rising due to the suspension of exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, but domestic prices in Ukraine remain low

The suspension of wheat exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine since July 22 and from the Black Sea ports of the Russian Federation since August 12 due to increased attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels led to a slight speculative increase in wheat quotes during the week, although overall, soft winter wheat quotes decreased over the month.

During the week, September wheat futures rose:

• by 5.4% to $248/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (unchanged for the month),
• by 6.3% to $278.8/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+4.7%),
• by 0.7% to $248/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2.2%),
• by 3.4% to €225.25/t or $261/t - for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (-4.2%).

Traders were probably reassured by the USDA's August report, in which forecasts for wheat exports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation were reduced by only 1 and 1.5 million tons, respectively, although local analysts expect exports from Ukraine to decrease by 4-5 million tons, and from the Russian Federation by 15-20 million tons.

Russian grain terminals on the Black and Azov Seas continue to be idle, which increases demand for American wheat.

Wheat exports from the United States have been at 490,000 tons for two weeks in a row, up 20% from last year. But since the start of the 2026/27 season (June 1), only 3.89 million tons of wheat have been exported, down 19.3% from the previous season.

Wheat exports from Ukraine in the first two weeks of August amounted to only 219 thousand tons, which is 3.5 times less than last year, and in total in the 2026/27 MY reached 1.29 million tons, which is 17.5% lower than last year's pace.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine were declared at a stable level of 8200-8900 UAH/t or 160-175 $/t for food wheat and 7900-8200 UAH/t or 155-160 $/t for feed wheat with delivery to the ports of the Danube and the Black Sea.

Processors lowered the asking price for food wheat to UAH 6,700-7,200/t delivered to the mill amid increased supply from farmers, and exporters purchasing grain at domestic elevators for delivery to Romanian ports lowered prices to UAH 6,700-7,200/t EXW due to increased logistics costs.

Blocking grain exports from the Russian Federation and Ukraine will continue to put pressure on world prices, which will keep prices in Ukraine from falling further.