Wheat stock prices ended the week with rapid growth

The decline in the estimate of US wheat stocks and production in 2020/21 MG provided strong support to the market, thanks to which wheat quotes in Chicago and Kansas increased by 6.3-6.7% in two sessions.

The funds increased the number of short positions on wheat by 4,324 to 9,815 contracts, and long positions – by 7,093 to 46,127 contracts, which indicates an increase in demand for wheat and a possible further increase in prices.

December US futures rose:

• by 1 10.93 / ton to 2 277.5 / ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+6.3% in two days),
• by 1 10.2 / ton to 2 279.2 / ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+6.75%),
• by 6 6.06/ton to.341.3 / ton for durum spring hrs wheat in Minneapolis (+2.7%).

The European Commission increased its forecast for soft wheat production in the EU by 3.8 million tons to 131 million tons (117.1 million tons last year), but left its export forecast at 30 million tons (27.4 million tons in 2020/21). But this news did not increase the pressure on quotes, which were supported by the depreciation of the euro to 1 1.1577/€.

• December wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext rose 6.25 €/ton to 264.25 €/ton or 3 306.5/ton on Friday, adding 4.3% over the week.

Tunisian agency ODC purchased 100 thousand tons of wheat at a tender for delivery in October at an average price of 3 364.66/ton, which supported the European wheat market.

• December Black Sea wheat futures on Chicago SWOT also rose 4 4.5/ton to 3 323.25 / ton, adding 2.9% over the week.

For the period October 6-12, the export duty on Russian wheat will increase by 4 4.3/ton to.57.8/ton against the background of an increase in the seven-day Index calculated at the average price, published by the Moscow Exchange MOEH.

Supply prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein increased to 3 306-308/ton FOB, which increased demand for Ukrainian wheat, which is now offered at.295-305/ton FOB.

Wheat exports from Ukraine in the current season reached 8.9 million tons, which is 4% faster than last year's pace. According to the forecast, in my 2021/22, Ukraine exports 24 million tons of wheat, which is 40% higher than in the previous season.