Stock market quotes for wheat increased by 6-10% in a week amid restrictions on exports from Ukraine caused by shelling of ships in the Black Sea

Russian attacks on civilian ships in the Black Sea, which resulted in the deaths of crew members, virtually halted grain exports from Ukraine by major traders, which increased speculative demand and prices on exchanges.

Wheat quotes for wheat in Paris increased by 10% in a week, for soft winter wheat in Chicago - by 6.1% on expectations of restrictions on wheat supplies from the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as well as against the backdrop of reduced harvest forecasts in France and Germany.

Over the week, September wheat futures rose:

• by 6.1% to $247.7/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+12.5% in three weeks),
• by 8.6% to $265.9/t - for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+14.2%),
• by 6% to $254.4/t - for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+12%),
• by 10% to €236.25/t or $270/t - for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+16.3%).

Almost all traders in Ukraine have stopped purchasing wheat for delivery to ports and are only accepting grain that has already been delivered to the port and is in queues or is being delivered under previously concluded contracts. Many shipowners are refusing to load vessels due to the threat of damage.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine fell by 500-600 UAH/t, in particular for food wheat - to 9800-10100 UAH/t or $195-205/t, and for feed wheat - to 9400-9500 UAH/t or $185-188/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

In the first 17 days of the 2026/27 MY, Ukraine exported 706 thousand tons of wheat, which is 2.5 times more than a year ago, due to active exports of old-crop wheat.

As of July 20, 2.6 million tons of wheat were threshed from 633.2 thousand hectares in Ukraine, with a yield of 4.11 tons/hectare, which significantly exceeds the figure at the start of the last season.

According to the forecast of FranceAgriMer, in France the production of soft wheat will decrease by 4% compared to last year to 32 million tons (2% less than the average for 5 years). At the same time, the Argus agency estimates the wheat harvest in France at 30.8 million tons, which is 7.6% less than last year.

The DRV association of farmers' cooperatives has lowered its forecast for Germany's wheat harvest in 2026 from 22.63 to 21.89 million tons, which would be 5.4% lower than last year's figure, as crops were severely affected by heat and lack of rain.

It is worth noting that demand from importers from North African countries remains low, as they are still hoping for a resolution of the situation in the Black Sea and are in no hurry to counterattack expensive European wheat.

Low demand for Russian wheat from Egypt and Turkey (where domestic production has increased) and restrictions on navigation from Azov ports and through the Kerch Strait have already reduced the forecast for wheat exports from the Russian Federation (according to Sovecon estimates) in July to 1.5 million tons (compared to 3.1 million tons on average over 5 years), which will be the lowest July figure since 2017. This will lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in supply prices for Black Sea wheat in August and September.