Stock market quotes for wheat fell by 5.8-14.9% in a month, which increases pressure on prices in Ukraine

Low export demand, improved weather in Australia and Argentina, and favorable weather conditions for sowing winter wheat completely offset the factor of blocking Black Sea ports, and the reduction in exports from the USA led to a collapse in wheat quotes to the levels of the beginning of the 2026/27 season.

Last week, wheat quotes on American exchanges continued to decline under the pressure of very low export demand, losing a total of 13.4-14.9% during October, which is increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine.

During the week, December wheat futures fell:

• by 1.5% to $222.85/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-14% per month),
• by 2% to $237.4/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (-14.9%),
• by 1.2% to $230.3/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-13.4%).

At the same time, December soft wheat futures on Euronext in Paris increased by 0.8% during the week to €228.25/t or $256/t (-5.8% per month).

Wheat exports from the US in the period October 22-29 decreased by 41.3% compared to the previous week to 75.4 thousand tons, which is 78.5% lower than the corresponding figure last year, and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY, it amounted to 7.53 million tons, which is already 36.3% lower than last year's rates.

Ukraine exported 954 thousand tons of wheat in 30 days of October (compared to 1.448 million tons last year), and in total since the beginning of the season — 3.73 (6.185) million tons. At the same time, the Russian Federation exported about 2.5 million tons of wheat in October, and in total since the beginning of the season — almost 10.3 million tons compared to 16.9 million tons for the same period in 2025/26 MY. According to the forecast of Rusagrotrans, wheat exports from the Russian Federation in November may exceed 3 million tons.

The quotations are also being pressured by information about favorable weather conditions for sowing winter wheat. Thus, according to the weekly report of NASS USDA, as of November 1, 83% of the areas in the USA were sown with winter wheat (84% on average for 5 years), and seedlings were obtained on 65% of the areas, which corresponds to the average annual indicators. In Ukraine, as of October 28, 3.75 million hectares were sown with winter wheat, or 82.6% of the forecast, and dry weather this week will allow the completion of sowing.

Purchase prices for food wheat in Ukraine remain at $170–177/t or UAH 8,000–8,400/t, and for feed wheat — $150–155/t or UAH 7,000–7,500/t with delivery to Danube ports or western terminals, amid low supply from producers who expect sea exports to resume in the second half of the season and are holding back sales.

Processors have reduced purchase prices for food wheat to UAH 6,000–6,500/t with delivery to the mill due to low demand for flour on the domestic market.

Grain traders are actively using alternative routes for export, with Russian ones through the ports of the Baltic Sea and Ukrainian ones through the ports of Poland and Romania, so importers have sufficient supply and are reducing demand prices .