Wheat stock quotes have fallen by almost 10% in two weeks and continue to fall

Last week, wheat stock quotes continued to fall, losing about 5.8-10.9% in two weeks amid improving weather conditions in exporting countries and the start of harvesting a new crop in the US and China.

 

Favorable weather for sowing has been established in Ukraine, with abundant precipitation and low temperatures, which has a positive effect on the development of winter and spring crops and increases harvest potential.

 

According to NASS Crop Progress, in the USA, as of June 7, winter wheat was harvested on 11% of the area (6% on average over 5 years), the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition during the week decreased by 1% to 25% (54% last year), spring wheat was sown on 98% of the planned area (95% on average over 5 years), and the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition during the week increased by 5% to 52% (53% last year).

 

July wheat futures fell during the week:

• by 4.4% to $214.3/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-10.5% in two weeks),
• by 2.7% to $231.4/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (-8.1%),
• by 5% to $228/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-10.9%),
• by 2.9% to €200.75/t or $240.9/t - September wheat futures on Euronext in Paris (-5.8%).

 

It should be noted that during the last week of May, the wheat crop in France deteriorated due to abnormal heat in most of the country. As of June 1, 76% of the country's soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition (78% the previous week), compared to 69% at this time last year.

 

In Ukraine, over the past week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine sharply decreased by $3-5/t to $219-221/t or 10,900-11,000 UAH/t for food wheat and to $214-215/t or 10,800-10,900 UAH/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

 

The sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia on the interbank market has partially supported hryvnia prices, but in general, traders are already offering prices that have been established for the new harvest. Recent wheat tenders show a significant decrease in prices from buyers, so traders are finding it difficult to sell expensive Ukrainian wheat, especially against the backdrop of a sharp drop in prices for American wheat.

 

Wheat exports from Ukraine for 5 days of June amounted to 0.3 million tons (compared to 105 thousand tons for 6 days of June 2025), and in total in 2025/26 MY reached 12.84 million tons, which is 16.6% lower than last year's pace (14.97 million tons). In recent months, the pace of Ukrainian wheat exports has increased, but now they will decrease again, as buyers expect a new crop, which will be sold at lower prices.

 

The analytical agency SovEcon has raised its forecast for wheat production in the Russian Federation from 89.7 to 90.3 million tons due to favorable weather for winter and spring wheat, which will almost match last year's level, while the USDA in May estimated the harvest at 86 million tons.

 

For now, markets remain under pressure from declining export demand, but starting in July, demand will increase as importers switch to purchasing Black Sea wheat, which will remain the cheapest on the market.