Stock exchange quotations for wheat have already fallen to the level of January 2022
Wheat quotations on world exchanges continue to fall against the background of a seasonal increase in supply and expectations of a decrease in demand and a further fall in prices.
Activation of deliveries from Ukrainian Black Sea ports, acceleration of harvesting in the USA and the Russian Federation, low rates of exports from the USA and increased production forecasts for India remain the main factors of pressure on the wheat market.
25 ships have already left Ukrainian ports of the Black Sea through the grain corridor through the mediation of the UN, and yesterday's meeting between the presidents of Ukraine, Turkey and the head of the UN gives hope for a further increase in exports.
According to the MSG of the USA, export sales of wheat during the week of August 5-11 amounted to only 207.2 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 5.36 million tons, compared with 4.67 million tons for this period last year. But the actual export is 3.46 million tons compared to 4.3 million tons last year.
MSG experts of India increased the forecast of wheat production in the country by 0.43 million tons to 106.84 million tons, while local analysts estimated it at 95-99 million tons, and the USDA in August estimated it at 103 million tons. The pace of wheat purchases to state reserves in India decreased by 57% compared to last year to 18.8 million tons.
According to the General Administration of Customs, China imported 1.5 million tons of corn and 780,000 tons of wheat in July, which is 46% and 12% higher than in July 2021, respectively. This confirms that importers are restraining purchases in anticipation of a further drop in prices.
Iraq has canceled a tender for the purchase of wheat, as not only the number of applications submitted, but also the prices have increased.
Yesterday wheat quotes fell:
- by 4.5% or $11.67/t to $268.8/t – September futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
- by 5% or $4.15/t to $298.5/t - September HRW hard winter wheat futures in Kansas City,
- by 3.6% or $11/t to $313.3/t - September futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis,
- by 1.6% or $5.25/t to $336.75/t - September futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago,
- by 4.3% or €13.5/t to €313.75/t or $316.28/t - September wheat futures on Paris Euronext.
Export prices for Russian wheat with a protein content of 12.5% and delivery in August-September during the week fell by $20/t to $330/t FOB, which corresponds to the level of January 2022, and for the first time since the beginning of the season, they fell below those for European wheat .
In the near future, the prices will be influenced by the weather in Argentina and the conditions for sowing winter wheat in Ukraine, the area under which may decrease by 30-60% if the prices remain at a low level.
