Stock market quotations for wheat fell by 1.6-3%, losing the growth of the last month

On Friday, wheat quotations on world exchanges fell by 1.6-3%, losing up to 4.5% of the price in a week, under the pressure of the new IGC balance sheet, Turkey's extension of the ban on wheat imports and Russia's permission to transit grain from Kazakhstan.

In the October report, IGC experts left the forecast for world wheat production in 2024/25 at 798 million tons, as the improvement in the harvest estimate for Kazakhstan by 1 to 17 million tons is offset by a decrease in the forecast for Australia by 0.5 to 31.3 million tons and Argentina - by 0.3 to 18.1 million tons.

Last week, the Russian Federation temporarily banned the import of grain from Kazakhstan, but allowed its transit through its territory for export to other countries.

The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation and the Union of Grain Exporters decided to exclude foreign intermediaries from supply chains of Russian grain to 13 countries. Grain will now be shipped directly to government agencies and sovereign buyers in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Qatar, Kuwait, South Korea, Pakistan, India and Iraq. This is another step towards the monopolization of wheat exports and increased pressure on the world prices of the largest supplier of grain. Last year, we already saw how, at tenders in Egypt, prices for Russian wheat were the same for all sellers.

The Turkish agency TMO has maintained a 15% duty on wheat imports until December 31, which will hold back supplies and cause losses to exporters, primarily from the Russian Federation.

December futures fell on Friday:

• by 3% to $210.45/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.4% for the week, -1.6% for the month),
• by 2.7% to $213.4/t - for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (-4.1%, +0.7%)
• by 2% to $226.5/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (-4.5%, -0.2%),
• by 1.6% to €226.5/t or $246/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-1.1%, +3.3%).

Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine rose sharply at the beginning of last week, but then decreased by $1-3/t to $210-214/t or UAH 9,700-9,900/t for food and by $2-3/t to 198- $200/t or UAH 9,250-9,300/t for fodder wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Dry and warm weather in Ukraine, the USA and the Russian Federation allows you to speed up sowing, but the lack of precipitation in the next 10 days can negatively affect the emergence of seedlings and the condition of crops.