Stock market quotes for wheat in the US have already fallen by 2.8-4.6% below the level at the beginning of the season

Low export demand, reduced exports from the USA, improved weather in Australia and Argentina, and favorable conditions for sowing winter wheat completely offset the factor of blocking Black Sea ports and led to a collapse in wheat quotes to the levels of the beginning of the 2026/27 season.

Over the past 7 days, wheat quotes on US exchanges have decreased by another 0.7-3.2% and are trading below last year's level and the level at the beginning of the season, although wheat production in the US this season has decreased by 10 million tons, which, against the background of a sharp decrease in wheat exports from Ukraine and the Russian Federation, should, on the contrary, significantly support quotes.

During the week, December wheat futures fell:

• by 3.2% to $216/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.6% since July 1 and -2% for the year),
• by 2.2% to $232.4/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (-2.8% and +5.4%),
• by 0.7% to $228.6/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2.9% and -2.9%),
• by 0.7% to €226.75/t or $254/t for soft wheat on Euronext in Paris (+7.9% and +7.6%).

The reason for the decrease in quotations was a sharp speculative increase in soft wheat prices in Chicago by 26% from July 1 to September 1, which forced importers to abandon the purchase of American wheat instead of Ukrainian and Russian. However, it later turned out that Russian wheat continues to enter the markets, although in smaller volumes, so importers decided to postpone their purchases until exports from the Russian Federation or Ukraine resume and prices decrease.

Wheat exports from the USA in the period from October 29 to November 5 increased 2.4 times compared to the previous week to 248.5 thousand tons, which is 14.7% lower than the corresponding figure last year, and in total since the beginning of the 2026/27 MY, it amounted to 7.8 million tons, which is already 36.6% lower than last year's rates.

On Monday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its annual baseline forecasts, according to which in the 2027/28 MY, the area sown to wheat in the United States could reach 44 million acres, which would exceed the current year's figure (42.5 million acres).

According to NASS, as of November 8, 89% of the U.S. winter wheat area was sown (88% on average over the past 5 years). At the same time, the share of crops in good or excellent condition increased by 5 percentage points to 49%.

Wheat quotes in the EU remain high due to the low corn harvest this season and high demand for European wheat caused by reduced supplies from the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which also supports prices in Ukraine.

Demand prices for Ukrainian food wheat in the port of Constanta remain at $245-250/t, and for feed wheat at $230/t, despite the decline in stock market quotes, but prices will gradually fall.

In Ukraine, as of November 4, 3.95 million hectares, or 87% of the forecast, have been sown with winter wheat, and thanks to good October precipitation, the crops are in good condition.

Purchase prices for food wheat in Danube ports decreased by $10-15/t to $152-160/t or 7600-7800 UAH/t, and for feed wheat - to $132-140/t or 7000-7300 UAH/t due to the increase in freight costs caused by ship downtime.

In October, Ukraine exported 990 thousand tons of wheat (compared to 1.1 million tons in September and 1.48 million tons in October 2025), including 608 thousand tons by sea and 317 thousand tons by rail, and the main buyers were Egypt (283 thousand tons) and Algeria (192 thousand tons).

In the coming months, global markets will remain under pressure from harvests in Australia and Argentina and increased supply, and if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Black Sea, quotes and prices will drop sharply.