Wheat stock quotes speculatively rose after a drop, but increased supply continues to pressure markets

Yesterday, the American wheat exchanges saw a sharp speculative increase in quotes, which actually offset Friday's decline caused by the very bearish USDA world wheat balance.

Recall that the US Department of Agriculture predicts an increase in global wheat production in the 2025/26 MY compared to the previous season by 28 million tons, in particular in the main exporting countries - by 13.2 million tons to a record 419.7 million tons, with wheat production in the Black Sea region (EU + Russia + Ukraine) increasing by 24.7 million tons.

Despite the significant increase in supply, traders decided that American wheat was still the cheapest and could still rise in price a little, so on Monday, December wheat futures on the exchanges rose in price:

• by 3.2% to $200/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (+1.6% per week),
• by 2.6% to $194.3/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City (+0.4%),
• by 1.6% to $211.2/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+1.9%),
• by 1% to €191.5/t or $220.5/t - for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (+0.4%).

During November 6-13, wheat exports from the United States decreased by 15% compared to the previous week to 246.5 thousand tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 12.36 million tons, which is 19.3% ahead of last year's rates. Over 5.5 months of the 2025/26 season, the United States exported 50% of the 24.5 million tons of wheat forecast for the entire season, which does not indicate too active exports, while the export rates from Ukraine, the EU and the Russian Federation are 25-30% lower than last year.

In the 2025/26 MY (as of November 17), Ukraine exported 6.78 million tons of wheat, which is 27% lower than the corresponding figure last year (8.6 million tons).

Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine have practically not changed during the week and are 10,550–10,700 UAH/t or 218–223 $/t for food wheat and 9,900–10,100 UAH/t or 207–210 $/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Importers will continue to hold back on wheat purchases amid a huge supply this season, so we expect demand for expensive Black Sea wheat to fall, and buyers will switch to buying wheat from Australia and Argentina, hoping for lower prices amid high harvests in these countries.