Wheat stock market quotations during the week fell again by 1.3-4.5%

During the week, wheat futures on world exchanges fell by 1.3-4.5%, despite forecasts of a decrease in the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation and the EU (especially in France).

 

The SovEkon agency reduced the wheat harvest forecast in the Russian Federation by 1.8 to 82.9 million tons (92.8 million tons last year and 86.7 million tons on average over 5 years) due to a decrease in yield and sowing area. Rosstat estimates the area under wheat at 28.5 million hectares (29.8 million tons last year), and SovEkon - at 29.2 million hectares. As of August 14, 59.8 million tons of wheat were harvested in the Russian Federation from 17.1 million hectares or 57.5% of the area with a yield of 3.98 tons/ha (5.09 tons/ha last year).

 

The representative of FAS USDA in the EU reduced the forecast of the harvest of soft wheat in the EU-27 by 5.8 million tons to 116.5 million tons, which will be the worst indicator since 2018, when 114.8 million tons were harvested.

 

According to the state agency FranceAgriMer, in France, soft wheat has been harvested on 98% of the area, the total harvest will be 26.3 million tons, which is 24% lower than the average 5-year indicator. In spite of the rainy weather, the protein content and number of fall in the wheat already harvested are generally satisfactory, while the actual weight varies from low in the east to satisfactory and good in the west of the country.

 

On Friday, September wheat futures rose:

• by 0.3% to $194.7/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-1.3% for the week),
• by 0.5% to $198.3/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-1.6%)
• by 1.1% to $218/t - for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis (+0.2%),
• by 1.9% to €205.25/t or $226.6/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-4.5%).

 

The active export of wheat from the USA has not yet significantly supported the quotation, although in 2024/25 the USA exported 3.95 million tons of wheat, which is 24% ahead of last year's pace.

 

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, wheat harvesting in Ukraine has been completed and the total harvest amounted to 21.7 million tons (23 million tons last year), which almost corresponds to the USDA's August forecast of 21.6 million tons. In 2024/25 MR (as of August 16) with Ukraine exported 2.6 million tons of wheat, of which 1 million tons in August, while last year these figures were 1.33 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively.

 

During the week, export purchase prices decreased by UAH 100-200 to UAH 9,250-9,500/t or $198-203/t for food wheat and UAH 8,250-8,400/t or $178-182/t for fodder wheat against the background of increased supply and the fall of world quotations.

 

This week, we expect the market's reaction to the decline in the EU wheat harvest, the strengthening of export demand and the intention of the Egyptian GASC to purchase a large batch of wheat outside the tender.