Wheat stock quotes continue to rise, but prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from low export demand

Dry and cold weather in the US Plains is negatively affecting the condition of winter wheat crops and spring wheat planting, which continues to push up prices for new crop wheat, which have increased on exchanges by 0.5-2.9% per week and 4.1-11.7% per month.

 

According to the USDA report, in the United States, between April 27 and May 3, the number of crops in good or excellent condition increased by only 1% to 31% (51% last year), as precipitation fell only in the Midwest, and the Plains are dry and cold. In the main wheat-producing states, the share of crops in poor or very poor condition is: 44% in Kansas, 67% in Nebraska, 49% in Oklahoma, 56% in Texas.

 

At the same time, 32% of the planned area was sown with spring wheat in the USA, which is significantly less than a year ago (42%) and the average for 5 years (35%).

 

July wheat futures rose over the week:

• by 1.8% to $235.5/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+5.8% per month),
• by 2.9% to $255.2/t – for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+11.7%),
• by 0.5% to $256.8/t – for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+4.1%),
• by 0.5% to 213.5€/t or 249.5 $/t - September wheat futures on Euronext in Paris (+0.8%).

 

Light precipitation is expected in Kansas and Texas this week, while no rain is forecast in the Southern and Northern Plains, which will continue to reduce spring wheat plantings in favor of late crops and support wheat prices.

 

The war against Iran is dragging on, so fuel and fertilizer prices are rising, which will raise the cost of wheat around the world and increase prices for the new crop.

 

According to the US Department of Agriculture, wheat exports from the US during April 23-30 increased by 17% compared to the previous week to 434.2 thousand tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 22.3 million tons, which is 12% lower than the pace of the previous season, with the USDA forecast of 24.5 million tons for the 2025/26 MY.

 

According to the European Commission's estimates, in the 2025/26 MY (as of April 24), EU countries exported almost 19.28 million tons of wheat, which is 6% higher than last year's pace, but two months before the end of the season it is already clear that the USDA's projected 30.5 million tons will not be achieved.

 

In Ukraine, shelling of ports and terminals continues, negatively affecting grain export shipments. Reduced demand has slightly lowered freight rates from Black Sea ports, supporting purchase prices.

 

Over the past week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine increased by 100-150 UAH/t to 10,900-11,150 UAH/t or $220-222/t for food wheat and to 10,700-10,800 UAH/t or $215-216/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports.

 

Wheat stocks in Ukraine as of April 1 amounted to 5.4 million tons, which is 58% higher than last year and creates additional pressure on prices.

 

Wheat exports from Ukraine rose to 1.2 million tons in April, and in total, almost 11.2 million tons were exported in the season, which is 23% lower than last year's pace. However, the USDA forecast for this season was 12.5 million tons, so it may be adjusted upwards in May.

 

Dry and warm weather is expected in Ukraine in the next 7-10 days, which will facilitate the sowing and development of winter crops, but the lack of active precipitation will negatively affect plant vegetation.

 

The duty on wheat exports from the Russian Federation has been reduced to zero, so Russian exporters are increasing exports. The Russian Federation has exported 38 million tons of wheat at this time, and the Sovecon agency has increased its forecast for wheat exports from the Russian Federation in the 2025/26 MY by 0.9 million tons to 47.4 million tons (the USDA estimates it at 44.5 million tons), and in the 2026/27 MY - by 1.4 million tons to 45.2 million tons.

 

Forecasts of reduced harvests in Australia and the US will remain the main speculative factors supporting quotes in the coming months, but significant supply is slowing growth.

 

Indian traders have started exporting wheat for the first time in four years, with a large new crop and ample stocks, as rising global prices and stable freight rates have allowed them to sell small batches to buyers in Asia and the Middle East, Reuters reported. According to traders, ITC has started loading 22,000 tonnes of wheat onto a ship at the port of Kandla for shipment to the United Arab Emirates. Sources said the deal for the export of the consignment was signed at a price of around $275/tonne FOB.