Wheat stock quotes continue to decline, but export prices in Ukraine remain high amid supply shortage

Against the backdrop of low importer activity and new forecasts of an increase in the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation, stock market quotes for wheat fell by 1.4-2.5% per week, and by 2-7.8% per month. At the same time, prices for food wheat in Ukraine remain high due to a lack of supply.

IKAR analysts yesterday again raised their forecast for the gross wheat harvest in the Russian Federation in the 2025/26 MY by 1 million tons to 85.5 million tons, and for exports by 1 million tons to 42.5 million tons, while the USDA in August estimated them at 83.5 and 46 million tons, respectively. The reason for the increase in the harvest with a decrease in the sowing area by 5% was the higher-than-expected wheat yield in the center and the Volga region, as well as forecasts of a good harvest in Siberia and the Urals. This increased the pressure on stock quotes, as international demand remains quite low.

As of August 17, winter wheat in the US has been threshed on 94% of the area (96% last year and 95% on average for 5 years), and spring wheat has been harvested on 36% of the area (29% last year and 36% on average). Wheat exports from the US during August 7-14 decreased by 4.7% compared to the previous week to 395 thousand tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY (from June 1) amounted to 4.8 million tons, which is 3.7% higher than last year's pace.

During the week, September futures fell:

• by 2.5% to $184.7/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (-7.8% per month),
• by 2.5% to $186/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4%),
• by 1.4% to $209/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis -2%).

At the same time, wheat futures on the Paris Euronext exchange increased by 0.8% to €196.25/t or $228.7/t (-3.2% per month).

According to the analytical center of JSC Rusagrotrans, wheat exports from the Russian Federation in the first half of August amounted to only 1.3 million tons (compared to 5.6 million tons in August 2024), and prices for Russian wheat with a protein of 12.5% and delivery in August-September increased by $5/ton to $242/ton FOB per week, which supports prices for Ukrainian food wheat.

Uncertainty about wheat quality in western and northern Ukraine and low supply from farmers busy harvesting and sowing winter rapeseed are supporting food wheat prices at ports at UAH 10,700–10,900/t or $224–230/t, but some traders have already purchased the batches needed for export and reduced prices.

It is worth noting that export purchase prices for feed wheat during the week remained at the level of 9400–9700 UAH/t or $200–207/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, and the discount for substandard wheat even decreased to 100–400 UAH/t with a content of “soot” grains of 10–25%.

In the 2025/26 MY, Ukraine exported 1.67 million tons of wheat (3.089 million tons for the same period last year), in particular, for 18 days of August - 915 thousand tons, which is 70% lower than the corresponding figure last year.

As of August 14, 2025, 18.986 million tons of wheat were threshed in Ukraine from 4.396 million hectares (88% of the planned area) with a yield of 4.32 tons/hectare, so the projected 21.5-22 million tons will be harvested.

Egypt purchased almost 4 million tons of local wheat of the 2025 harvest, which exceeds the volume of purchases last season (3.43 million tons) and is in line with the procurement plan (4-5 million tons), so new tenders for the purchase of wheat can be expected in the near future.