Stock market quotes for wheat continue to fall, so we expect a decrease in prices in Ukraine as well

The improvement in the world wheat balance for 2025/26MY is increasing the pressure on quotations, which is reflected in export prices in Ukraine, which are also affected by the Russian attacks on port infrastructure and the increase in the cost of insurance and freight for ships for the Black Sea after hitting civilians.

Wheat prices on world exchanges fell by 1.6-2.9% over the week under pressure from the relatively good condition of winter wheat crops in major exporting countries.

Yesterday, March wheat futures fell:

• by 1.6% to $191.34/t - for SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.9% for the week),
• by 1.2% to $188.1/t - for HRW wheat in Kansas City (-1.8%),
• by 1.2% to $209.35/t - for HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-2.2%),
• by 0.7% to €187.75/t or $220.6/t - for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (-1.6%).

Strong demand for cheap American wheat is supporting US quotes, but the entry of Australian and Argentine wheat into the markets will reduce demand in the second half of the season.

Wheat exports from the US during December 5-11 increased by 23% compared to the previous week to 488 thousand tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY amounted to 14.12 million tons, which is 21.9% ahead of last year's pace.

According to the European Commission, EU exports of soft wheat from July 1 to December 2, 2025 amounted to 9.66 million tons, which is 5% lower than the corresponding figure of the previous year, while exports of durum wheat increased threefold to 938.5 thousand tons.

The sharp increase in the cost of insuring ships in the Black Sea has increased freight costs, leading to a decrease in purchase prices, which are already under pressure from falling demand.

After falling by $5-7/t in the previous week, purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine remained at $214-216/t or UAH 10,250-10,400/t for food wheat and $208-210/t or UAH 10,000-10,150/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports during the last week.

Traders are maintaining high purchase prices for the formation of export lots as supply continues to decline, and emphasize that prices for new lots will be significantly lower due to falling demand for wheat from Ukraine.

Wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025/26 MY (as of December 9) amounted to 7.52 million tons, which is 22% lower than last year's pace (9.175 million tons).

Uncertainty about freight costs and delays in vessel loading due to constant alarms and lack of electricity increase exporters' costs and risks, which reduces demand for Ukrainian wheat, especially against the backdrop of a steady increase in the supply of Russian wheat.