Wheat stock prices are expected in the October USDA report

2021-10-12 13:18:28
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Wheat stock prices are expected in the October USDA report

Today, the USDA will release a new balance of wheat supply and demand, which may increase global stocks amid declining demand, as well as adjust production forecasts for the United States and Russia.


Yesterday, exchanges in the United States were closed due to the weekend on the occasion of Columbus Day. Weekly reports on export sales and crop conditions will be released today, which will give traders additional information for analytics.


December US futures fell:

  • by 0 0.83 / ton to Чикаго 268.9/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
  • by 1 1.1 / ton to H 269.9/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
  • by 0 0.37/ton to.347.4 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.


Prices for European wheat remain high due to strong export demand and rising prices for Black Sea wheat. In my 2021/22, as of October 3, the EU exported 8.07 million tons of wheat (out of the USDA forecast of 35 million tons), which is 2.5 million tons higher than last year's corresponding figure (5.5 million tons) and 6% higher than in my 2019/20 (7.6 million tons). Romania (2.9 million tons) and Bulgaria (1.3 million tons) remain the main exporters, while Germany shipped 951.9 thousand tons, and France – 709.4 thousand tons, which indicates a significant export potential of French wheat.


  • December wheat futures on Paris ' Euronext fell 0.5 €/T to 268.5 €/t or 3 310.35 / t.


Export prices for Russian wheat have been rising for 13 consecutive weeks due to a shortage of supplies. Wheat with protein 12.5% according to Icarus rose in price by 3 3/ton to F 310/ton FOB, and according to SovEcon – by 6 6/ton to F 312/ton FOB. Wheat exports from Russia for the week decreased to 600 thousand tons, and in general in the season amounted to 9.4 million tons (out of the USDA forecast of 35 million tons), which is 24% lower than last year's pace.


  • December Black Sea wheat futures at Chicago SWOT rose to a record рекорд 325/ton on Friday, and fell to.324.25/ton yesterday.


High prices for Russian wheat support demand and prices for Ukrainian wheat, whose exports amounted to 9.74 million tons (out of the USDA forecast of 23.5 million tons), which is 6.6% ahead of last year's pace.


However, farmers are busy harvesting late crops and sowing winter crops, so they are in no hurry to sell wheat even at such prices, which forces traders to raise prices to attract the necessary volumes.


Today's USDA report may increase pressure on wheat and corn prices due to lower demand forecasts due to rapid price increases.

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