Stock market quotes for wheat are 12-23% lower than last year, but export prices in Ukraine are in line with last year's

The world wheat market is approaching the midpoint of the 2025/26 season with confirmation of a record global harvest, which continues to pressure wheat prices on global exchanges, which are now trading 12-23% lower than at the end of 2024.

Fairly favorable conditions for sowing and developing winter wheat crops for the 2026 harvest in major exporting countries are putting additional pressure on prices. This pressure could intensify in the spring of 2026 if the crops emerge from the winter without losses.

Over the past week, March wheat futures have remained almost unchanged:

• SRW wheat futures in Chicago fell by 0.5% to $188.5/t (-18.9% year-on-year),
• HRW wheat futures in Kansas City rose by 1.1% to $193.7/t (-17%),
• HRS wheat futures in Minneapolis decreased by 0.1% to $212.8/t (-12%),
• Wheat futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris rose by 1.3% to €190.75/t or $224.6/t (-23.4%).

Wheat exports from the USA amounted to 15 million tons, which is 22% higher than last year's rates, while exports from the EU (10.8 million tons) are 2% lower than last year's figures, from the Russian Federation (26 million tons) - 11%, and from Ukraine (7.76 million tons) - 25%.

Continuous Russian attacks on the port infrastructure of the Odessa region paralyzed the work of port terminals in December, which led to a decrease in the purchasing activity of traders and prices. But overall, in the first half of the 2025/26 season, export demand prices for wheat were higher than last year, and are now in line with last year's level.

During the week, export purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine remained at the level of $208-214/t or 10,000-10,200 UAH/t for food wheat (213-214 $/t last year) and $204-205/t or 9,700-9,900 UAH/t for feed wheat (206-208 $/t last year) with delivery to Black Sea ports.

In the second half of the season, deliveries of new wheat crops from Argentina and Australia will intensify, which will continue to reduce demand for wheat, including in Ukraine. Therefore, farmers who have not yet sold their wheat should take advantage of the high export demand from some traders who will be completing the formation of export batches at the beginning of the year.