Australia could harvest second consecutive record barley crop in 2026/27 MY

According to the USDA FAS forecast, in 2026/27MY, Australia may increase barley production compared to the previous season by 4.4% or 700 thousand tons to a record 17.7 million tons, which will exceed the 10-year average by 40% and will be the second consecutive record harvest.

 

The increase in production is due to the increase in the area sown, favorable weather conditions in the southern regions and the increase in the costs of growing other crops, in particular the increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizers, which forced farmers to abandon the cultivation of wheat and rapeseed in favor of barley. Expectations of a possible deficit of precipitation due to the development of El Niño also affected the structure of the areas.

 

Barley exports in the 2026/27 MY are expected to reach a record level for the second consecutive season, at 13 million tonnes (compared to 7.3 million tonnes on average over the past 10 years), of which 75-80% will be delivered to China. After the abolition of an 80% tariff on Australian barley in August 2023, China has sharply increased its purchases, and now Saudi Arabia is also increasing imports.

 

Meanwhile, Australian wheat production is set to fall 11% or 4 million tonnes from last year to 32 million tonnes, 10% above the 10-year average. Wheat exports are forecast to reach 25 million tonnes, the third-highest in history, well above the annual average of 20.4 million tonnes.

 

A record barley harvest will increase grain supply for the malting and feed industries, as well as strain the country's storage capacity and export infrastructure. This may lead to lower prices during the harvest period, but they will be supported by strong export demand.

 

Currently, the biggest risk to the crop is weather conditions, including a possible rainfall deficit in some states.