Australia in 2022/23 MR may collect a near-record harvest of grain

Australia in 2022/23 may harvest a near-record crop of grain, despite a possible reduction in production in some regions due to heavy rains, Grain Central reports.

According to Rabobank's forecast, in the current season, the production of grain crops in Australia will reach 61.9 million tons, which will be 1% less than last year, but 41% higher than the average 5-year level. Thus, compared to the previous season, wheat production may decrease by 2% to 35.5 million tons, and barley and canola production may increase by 7% to a record 14.8 million tons and 7.2 million tons, respectively.

Record grain harvests are expected in Western and South Australia, while heavy rain and flooding will reduce output in Victoria and Queensland. In Western Australia, the grain harvest will exceed last year's by 2% and reach 23.47 million tons, and in South Australia it will amount to 10.7 million tons, which will exceed the record 2016/17 MR by 1%.

Rabobank experts also believe that the country's export potential after the 2022/23 harvest will exceed the official estimate of exports in 2021, which is 47.5 million tons.

The results of the November-December wheat harvest in Australia and Argentina always add pressure on prices. This year's reduction in production in Argentina will be more than offset by an increase in the harvest in Australia. In addition, if the operation of the grain corridor continues in November - December, the supply of Black Sea grain will increase. All this increases the pressure on quotations, which fell by 1-2% yesterday.

The rate of export of Russian wheat is 23% lower than last year, while its harvest grew by 34% or 25 million tons, which more than compensates for the decrease in production in Ukraine by 12 million tons.