Australian barley continues to select buyers from Black Sea barley

Australian barley exports are growing due to the Great Chinese program, as well as a significant increase in demand in Turkey and a real lack of competition from the Black Sea region and Europe. This opinion was expressed by Flexi Grain manager Sam Roach.

According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), in September, Australia exported:

• 32.7 thousand tons of malting barley;
• 514.8 thousand tons of fodder barley;
• 252.7 thousand tons-sorghum.

Flexi Grain manager Sam Roach said Barley surprised this month because its exports at the end of the program were higher than previously expected. He also noted that he sees no real competition from the Black Sea region and Europe.

However, analysts at Barva Invest note that despite the fact that from December until the appearance of a new crop in the Northern Hemisphere, Australia will be the main exporting country on the market, and prices in many directions will strongly depend on it, there are still importers who, due to expensive logistics and geographical proximity to Ukraine, will remain active buyers.

"Unlike wheat and corn, the situation with barley in Ukraine is more positive. This year, Ukraine received a record harvest (10 million tons, not 8-9, as usual), which means that our export potential is 6 million tons against the traditional 3.5 — 5 million tons. for other cereals, an extra 1 million tons is not so significant, but, of course, for Ukrainian barley this is an additional 15-20%, for which it is necessary to find buyers," the analysts noted.

In addition, they noted that the start was excellent, and in August Ukraine exported 1.8 million tons of barley, while the previous record for the same month reached 1.2 million tons. September passed at a good pace, but in October there was already a decline.

"An important problem is that for Ukraine, the key buyers are usually China and Saudi Arabia. In autumn, the pace of shipments to these destinations plummeted, and now further demand is questionable. This situation is partially offset by Turkey, which, according to the results of the first part of the season, moved Saudi Arabia from second place and imported 700 thousand tons from Ukraine in 4 months of the current season, which is twice as much as in total for any previous season. Therefore, the shipment of 1.4 million tons is not an unattainable goal," the experts noted. Recall that since the beginning of my 2021/22 as of November 8, barley exports from Ukraine reached 4.52 million tons, which is 33.8% more than a year ago and has already exceeded the total volume of exports for the entire last season.

 In Ukraine purchase prices for barley in recent weeks, corn prices have been actively growing and exceeded the level of 7800-8000 UAH/ton with delivery to the port against the background of limited supply volumes, as farmers are busy harvesting corn, and due to not very good shoots of winter crops, the demand for spring barley seeds from farmers has increased.

As of November 8, 18.7 million tons of barley were threshed in Russia, which is 2.3 million tons less than a year ago, which reduces the export potential. According to forecasts of APK-Inform experts, in 2021/22 MY Russia can supply about 3.5 million tons of barley to foreign markets, which is 44% lower than the result of the 2020/21 season 6.3 million tons. barley exports from Russia at the beginning of the season at the end of October are about 1.6 million tons, which is 36.8% less than a year ago.