Argentina has harvested a record corn harvest and may push Ukraine into its traditional markets

Argentina (the world's third largest corn exporter) is completing the harvest, which in the 2025/26 MY will exceed the previous record (5 years ago) by 20% and reach 71.7 million tons.

In August and September, the country exported a record 10 million tons of corn, while exports usually amount to about 3 million tons during this period. Increasing global demand will allow to increase supplies, as importers look for a replacement for grain from Ukraine and the Russian Federation, whose exports are blocked, and the harvest in the EU was reduced by abnormal summer heat. Argentina is now offering a unique combination of large batches of grain at a low price.

Recently, demand for Argentine corn has increased in North African countries, which traditionally bought Ukrainian grain. According to the national statistical agency INDEC, in 7 months of 2026, Argentina increased corn exports in this direction by 45% to 6.5 million tons. Thus, Morocco increased corn imports by 133% to 1.55 million tons, Egypt – by 48% to 2.4 million tons, Algeria – by 10% to 2.4 million tons.

Export offer prices for Argentine corn in early September were $200/t FOB Up River, which was $5-10/t higher than the spring level. However, corn prices in Brazil are even lower, which, against the backdrop of a good second harvest, will allow it to increase competition with American and Black Sea corn.

In Ukraine, corn prices with delivery to the port of Constanta are $240/t, and the greatest demand from the EU is for deliveries to the western border in October-November at a price of $195-210/t FCA.

November corn futures in Paris fell by 4.8% during the week to €265/t or $308/t amid increased supply from domestic crops and from Ukraine, so we expect further price declines in the EU and Ukraine under pressure from increased supplies of corn to the EU from Argentina and Brazil.