Argentina sold $7 billion worth of products in three days and reintroduced export duties, but demand from China has dropped sharply

Three days later, the Argentine government canceled its decision to suspend grain export quotas until October 31, as the volume of export contracts concluded during this time reached $7 billion.

It is worth noting that the stock market reacted quite calmly both to the abolition of duties and the sharp increase in soybean and sunflower oil supplies, as well as to their restoration.

Soybean and soybean oil quotes in Chicago have barely changed in a few days, but news of China's purchase of significant shipments of Argentine soybeans and other products gives reason to expect a decrease in demand in the physical market.

Suppliers from the US, Brazil and Ukraine have faced refusals from Chinese companies to purchase as Argentine traders have entered the market with lower prices.

Ukrainian news agencies report that some Chinese buyers have withdrawn their orders for Ukrainian sunflower meal, and asking prices have fallen to $278-280/t CIF for pelleted and $270-275/t CIF for non-pelleted meal.

Analysts at the Rosario Grain Exchange predict that in the 2025/26 MY, Argentina will increase exports of grain and its processed products to a record 105.1 million tons (101.6 million tons in the 2024/25 MY), exceeding the previous record of 104.1 million tons in the 2018/19 season.

In particular, exports of grains and oilseeds will reach 64.7 million tons, of which 62% will be corn. Exports of oils and meals will reach 40.4 million tons, most of which will be soybeans.