Analysts lower forecasts for crop production in Canada

On the eve of the release of the official forecast from the Statistical Office of Canada (StatCan), most agencies published their own estimates of the production of cereals and oilseeds in the country, which is one of the main suppliers of wheat and canola to the world market. Data from The New StatCan forecast will significantly affect prices.

After monitoring the state of crops of major agricultural crops in Canada, experts from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada lowered their forecasts for agricultural production in the 2021/22 season due to a prolonged drought.

Thus, compared to last month's estimates, the wheat harvest forecast was reduced by 11.2 million tons to 20.2 million tons (35.2 million tons in 2020/21 mg), and the export forecast – by 8.3 million tons to 14.1 million tons (27.1 million tons in 2020/21 MG). Domestic consumption was estimated at 8.6 million tons compared to last year's 8.8 million tons.

The forecast for barley production was reduced by 3.4 million tons to 7.5 million tons, and its exports – by 1.7 million tons to 2.1 million tons compared to last year's 10.7 million tons and 4.3 million tons, respectively. Domestic consumption is also expected to decrease from 7.2 million tons to 5.7 million tons compared to the previous season.

At the same time, the forecast for corn production was reduced only by 0.1 million tons to 14.2 million tons (13.6 million tons in 2020/21 MG), as the reduction in sowing areas will be offset by an increase in yield.

Due to unfavorable weather conditions, forecasts for the oilseed harvest have been sharply reduced. Thus, compared to July estimates, the forecast for canola production was reduced by 4.9 million tons to 15 million tons (18.7 million tons in 2020/21 MG), its export – by 2.9 million tons to 7 million tons (10.9 million tons in 2020/21 mg), and domestic consumption – by 1.9 million tons to 8.2 million tons (10.4 million tons in 2020/21 MG).

The forecast for the soybean harvest was reduced by 0.2 million tons to 6 million tons, and its exports – by 0.2 million tons to 4.1 million tons, which will be slightly lower than last year's 6.4 million tons and 4.6 million tons, respectively.