Analysts believe that the European Commission has not sufficiently reduced the forecasts of the rape harvest in the EU

The European Commission has significantly lowered its forecasts for the EU rape crop, but some market participants believe that estimates should be even lower, especially for Germany.

Rapeseed harvesting in the EU is underway, and in some regions already completed, with yield data confirming pre-harvest estimates. Unfavorable weather conditions during the growing season and the activity of pests in the larger territory of the EU had a negative effect on the formation of the harvest, so the European Commission adjusted forecasts several times downwards.

Now, the forecast for the rape harvest in the EU has been reduced by 0.5 to 18.4 million tons compared to the June estimate, which is 1.3 million tons less than the 2023 figure, but still exceeds the annual average of 17.8 million tons. this year, IGC experts estimate the harvest at 18.5 million tons, and USDA - at 18.9 million tons.

The European Commission lowered the forecast of rapeseed production for France the most (compared to June) - from 4.1 to 3.9 million tons (4.3 million tons in 2023), because there was an excessive amount of precipitation. At the same time, the forecast for Romania was reduced by 0.1 to 1.5 million tons (1.8 million tons last year), and for Germany - to 4 million tons (4.2 million tons last year), although the German association Raiffeisen estimates the harvest at 3, 8 million tons. For Slovakia, Ireland and Denmark, production forecasts have been increased, but it will be inferior to last year's harvests and will not be able to compensate for the decrease in production in France and other countries.

November rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange fell 1% to €464.5/t or $507/t on Friday (-1.7% for the week, -8% for the month), although analysts expected a recovery quotations up to 470-480 €/t against the background of another decrease in crop forecasts in the EU and Ukraine.

Today, the market is waiting for the USDA's August report, where they may lower the production forecast, which will have a significant impact on global quotations in the near future.