Analysts at PUSK predict high rapeseed prices in July-September at $540-560/t and a small number of forwards

According to forecasts of the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council, rapeseed prices in Ukraine on a CPT-port basis in July - September will be $540-560/t. It is expected that there will be few forwards, since farmers are afraid of risks, so the main trade will be conducted on the spot.

Experts note that a scarce market for new crop rapeseed is currently forming in Ukraine, as traders and processors are increasing purchases against the backdrop of limited supply and stable demand from the EU.

Prices for new crop rapeseed are €475–480/t, but may rise to €500–510/t.

In Ukraine, conditional prices for rapeseed deliveries to Black Sea ports in July-August are $510-515/t excluding VAT, while processors offer $535-545/t, and sometimes even $550-560/t excluding VAT.

Despite low activity on European exchanges, prices in Ukraine are rising due to the imbalance between the volumes of already concluded export contracts (by 1.7-1.8 million tons) and actual purchases (1.3 million tons).

"Thus, the market for the new harvest remains in short supply, and traders need to cover at least another 100,000–500,000 tons," the PUSK believes.

Such a shortage of rapeseed will keep prices high and contribute to their further growth. Therefore, farmers are in no hurry to conclude forward contracts, especially given the difficult weather conditions, including frost.