OilWorld analysts reduced the forecast for the rapeseed harvest in the EU, but quotes in Paris fell sharply
Abnormal heat has damaged European rapeseed crops more than expected. According to updated estimates by OilWorld, despite an increase in the area under rapeseed in the EU by 0.24 million hectares to 6.37 million hectares, the gross rapeseed harvest in the EU will be 19.85 million tonnes and the average yield will be 3.12 tonnes/ha, while last year 20.51 million tonnes of rapeseed were harvested with a yield of 3.35 tonnes/ha.
The worst situation is observed in the main producing countries. Thus, in Germany, the harvest may decrease to 3.8 million tons compared to last year's 3.98 million tons. In the Czech Republic, where the harvest is almost complete, the yield decreased by 16% compared to 2025, the area under rapeseed - by 8-9%, and the gross harvest - by 19%. In Sweden, due to low yields, rapeseed production will not exceed 0.39 million tons. At the same time, in France, due to an increase in the sown area compared to last year from 4.64 to 4.71 million hectares, production will increase from 1.27 to 1.42 million tons.
The European Climate Service Copernicus confirms the scale of the weather anomalies: June and July 2026 were the hottest on record in Western Europe, with an average temperature 2.79 °C above normal. Drought affected 38% of the EU, including 15% of arable land.
Uncertainty about the EU harvest and export prospects from Ukraine, as well as rising Canadian canola prices, are negatively affecting the exchange quotes for rapeseed in Paris. On the Matif exchange, November rapeseed futures started the season at €512/t, reached a 2-year high of €554/t in mid-July, fell again to €512/t in early August, and rose to €549/t in mid-August. Yesterday, they fell by 3.1% to €522/t or $609/t following the fall in canola quotes in Canada .
We expect further speculative jumps in rapeseed quotes as supplies from Ukraine, Canada and Australia will be limited or unstable this season, so EU processors will have to raise prices to attract the necessary volumes.
