Oil World analysts have lowered their forecast for global sunflower oil production and reserves

According to Oil World (Germany), uncertainty about the global sunflower harvest is creating some tension in the sunflower oil market, the production of which could decrease by 2.3 million tons compared to last year.

In August, sunflower oil prices rose to a 33-month high. During April-June, sunflower oil exports decreased by 0.8 million tons compared to the same period last year, and in the current quarter they may decrease by another 0.1-0.2 million tons. Thus, the total reduction in exports in 2024/25 MY may reach 2 million tons.

Higher-than-expected supplies from Ukraine and Argentina partially offset reduced exports from the Russian Federation. Experts believe that the competitiveness of oil will improve going forward, especially given the forecasts for a recovery in supplies in the 2025/26 MY.

Global sunflower oil consumption next season will grow by only 0.2 million tons to 22.5 million tons, which will be significantly less than the record 23.8 million tons of the 2023/24 season.

Beginning sunflower oil stocks in the 2025/26 MY are likely to be 1-1.1 million tons lower than last year, which will significantly reduce supply.

Prices for Russian sunflower oil for delivery in September-October have already dropped to $1,135/t FOB Black Sea, which significantly exceeds the prices of Ukrainian sunflower oil offers, which are $1,180-1,200/t FOB Black Sea for delivery in September.