Active export demand for corn supports prices in Ukraine, but they remain under the pressure of falling global quotations

Against the background of active export demand and restraint of sales by producers, purchase prices for corn in the Black Sea ports increased by $4-5/t during the week to $145-149/t or UAH 6,100-6,300/t. But further growth is limited by the increase in offers from Argentina and the decrease in demand on the world market.

Corn exports from Ukraine for March 1-15 amounted to 1.3 million tons (1.69 million tons for the same period last year), and in general in the season reached 17.3 million tons, out of the USDA forecast of 24.5 million tons, while in 2023 r on this date it amounted to 20.3 million tons.

Demand prices for corn in the EU remain low, and supplies there are hampered by the blocking of borders by Polish farmers.

According to the European Commission, in the 2023/24 FY as of March 3, the EU imported 11.5 million tons of corn, which is 40% less than last year's pace. Spain (5.54 million tons), Italy (1.36 million tons) and the Netherlands (1.39 million tons) became the main importers of corn, and the main supplier of grain remained Ukraine, which supplied 7.73 million tons or 64.7% of the total European corn import compared to 10.4 million tons or 52.2% for the same period of the previous season. In the current season, the export of corn from the EU increased by 71% to 2.7 million tons.

June corn futures on the Paris exchange were up 4.1% for the week at €181.75/t, or $198/t, reversing last month's decline.

Meanwhile, May corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange for the week fell 0.7% to $171.9/t (+1.1% for the month) amid slowing exports from the US and better weather forecasts in Brazil.

The export of corn from the USA for the week of March 1-7 amounted to 1.283 million tons, and in general in the season reached 40.5 million tons, which is 27% higher than last year's pace. It is worth noting that the export forecast from the USDA is also 26.4% higher than in FY 2022/23.

In Argentina last week there were heavy rains, so the experts of the Rosario exchange left the forecast of the corn harvest at the level of 57 million tons.

In the north and in the center of Brazil, there were also rains, too weak considering the high air temperatures. But a front from Argentina will bring heavy rains to all regions of Brazil this week, adding pressure to world corn prices.

December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange are trading at $185.3/t, or 7.8% more expensive than May, which indicates that traders expect a reduction in the next season's harvest.