Active export of soybeans from Ukraine supports purchase prices at a high level

In the current season, there is an increase in the rate of export of soybeans from Ukraine, since it is much more profitable to export oil crops through the western borders, even despite the high cost of road transportation.

In November and December, shipments through the grain corridor picked up, which, against the background of possible problems with the harvest in Argentina, intensified exports through the Black Sea ports of Ukraine.

In December, processing enterprises had interruptions in energy supply, as a result of which there was a shortage of soybean and sunflower meal in the domestic market of Ukraine, and processors increased the purchase price of soybeans to UAH 14,500-15,500/ton.

Exporters increased the purchase prices for GMO soybeans to $400-420/t or UAH 14,600-15,500/t, and for non-GMO soybeans to $450-460/t or UAH 16,500-17,000/t with delivery to the port.

In 2022, 3.7 million tons of soybeans were harvested in Ukraine, of which 1.6-1.7 million tons will be processed, and approximately 2 million tons can be exported.

From September 1 to December 31, Ukraine exported 1.2 million tons of soybeans, but due to significant transitional stocks, another 1-1.5 million tons remain free for shipment until the end of the season.

In total, in 2022, Ukraine exported 2 million tons of soybeans, which is 80% higher than in 2021. Soybean processing volumes were also quite high, and the export of soybean meal in 2022 reached 236 thousand tons, which is almost the same as in 2021.

Brazil will begin harvesting a record soybean harvest in January, and in Argentina, rains have allowed planting to be completed, which has reduced speculative demand and quotations for soybeans on world exchanges.

March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange during the first week of the year fell 2.1% to $548/t.

In Argentina at the beginning of January, 82% of the planned area was planted with soybeans (94% last year and 93% on average for 5 years), and 62% of the crops were in good or satisfactory condition, compared to 72% a week ago.

According to the MSG of the USA, during the week of December 23-29, export sales of soybeans from the USA amounted to 721 thousand tons, and in general for the season - 43.829 million tons (with the USDA forecast of 55.66 million tons), which is 3% higher than last year's pace.

China's switch to buying Brazilian soybeans instead of American soybeans will reduce demand for US soybeans and increase quotation pressure.