Active harvesting of corn in the USA and increasing exports from Brazil are putting pressure on prices in Ukraine

As of October 20, corn in the USA was harvested on 65% of the area (55% last year and 52% on average for 5 years), which is the best indicator since 2012. The forecasted dry and warm weather for the next 7-10 days will allow harvesting to be completed in record time and with minimal losses.

Near-record soybean and corn crops will add to the problem of free space at elevators, where farmers are still storing leftover 2023 corn in anticipation of good prices.

The majority of US farmers are forced to sell corn at low prices, which contributes to the increase in exports, which increased by 97% in a week to 999.8 thousand tons, and in general in 2024/25 MR reached 5.8 million tons, which is 30.6% ahead of last year's pace and is the best indicator since 2018/19 MR.

During the week, December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange traded at $160/t (-1.5% for the month, -26% for the year).

According to AgRural data, as of October 17, 48% of the area was sown with first-harvest corn in Brazil, which is slightly lower than last year's figure. However, increased rainfall accelerates sowing. In October, the country already exported 3.9 million tons of corn out of the projected 5 million tons, but as the harvest in the United States is being harvested, competition between countries is intensifying.

In 2024/25, the EU MR increased corn imports compared to the previous season by 6% to 5.7 million tons, of which 2.8 million tons or 48.7% were supplied from Ukraine, 1.06 million tons or 18.7 % - from the USA (1.6% last year) and 961 thousand tons or 16.9% - from Brazil (43% last year).

An increase in the supply of cheap corn from Brazil and the USA increases the pressure on prices in the EU and Ukraine. Thus, during the week, November corn futures on the Paris exchange fell by 1.4% to €211.75/t or $229/t (+5% for the month).

In Ukraine, export demand prices in Black Sea ports decreased by $3-5/t to $195-198/t or UAH 9,200-9,300/t, so processors lowered prices by UAH 200-300/t to UAH 8,500-8,600/t with delivery to the factory.

As of October 18, 13.2 million tons of corn were threshed in Ukraine from 2.4 million hectares or 59% of the area with a yield of 5.5 tons/ha.

In 2024/25, Ukraine exported 3.54 million tons of corn (3 million tons for the same period last year).

According to StoneX, South Korean processor KFA bought 65,000 tons of corn from the US at a price of $236/t C&F for delivery in January, although it previously bought it at $245-250/t C&F, indicating a gradual decline in world prices.