MARS forecasts EU main crop yields below last year's level, but slightly above the average of the last five years

According to the June MARS Bulletin, crop growing conditions remain generally favourable in most regions of the European Union. Winter crops are approaching maturity and spring crops are continuing to develop vigorously. However, a dry spring and heat waves in May have already negatively affected crop prospects in parts of Western, Central and Eastern Europe.

MARS experts note that high temperatures and a deficit of precipitation will persist in much of Western and Central Europe until the end of June, which may increase stress for crops and reduce yield potential.

The forecast for the average yield of wheat (soft and hard) in the EU is estimated at 5.79 t/ha, which is 3% higher than the average for the last five years, but 5% lower than last year. In particular, in France, the yield of soft wheat is expected to be at the average level, in Germany - 4% above average, in Poland - 1% below, while in Romania - 15% above average.

The average yield of winter and spring barley in the EU is forecast at 5.09 t/ha, 2% above the five-year average but 10% below last year's level. The best results are expected for winter barley in Romania (+14% above average) and Bulgaria (+7%), while spring barley in Slovakia is forecast to be 15% below average.

For corn, the yield forecast has been raised to 7.38 t/ha, 4% above the five-year average and 3% above last year. The best results are expected in Bulgaria (+23% above average) and Romania (+4%), where crops have received sufficient rainfall during the growing season.

At the same time, the forecast for winter rapeseed yields in the EU remains less optimistic. The expected yield is 3.18 t/ha, which is 1% below the five-year average and 5% less than last year. The largest reductions are expected in Poland (-10%), Slovakia (-12%) and France (-1%) due to spring drought and frost. In contrast, yields are expected to increase by 9% in Romania and by 2% in Germany compared to the five-year average.

The forecast for sunflower yields in the EU has been raised to 2.08 t/ha, 5% higher than the average level over the last five years and 11% higher than in 2025. The best prospects are in Bulgaria (+35% above average) and Romania (+5%), while in France yields could decrease by 4%.

MARS estimates that crops in France, Spain and parts of Germany were most affected by the May heatwave. A second wave of high temperatures in late June could further worsen the condition of crops in these regions.

In Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, rainfall deficits have worsened crop prospects, with winter and spring crop yields forecast to be 5-8% below average. Meanwhile, Romania and Bulgaria are on track to achieve near-record yields.

For Ukraine, MARS estimates the average yield of the main crops at above average. At the same time, analysts draw attention to a significant contrast between regions: the central, southern and eastern regions received sufficient rainfall, while the western regions continue to suffer from a moisture deficit, which could negatively affect both winter and spring crops.

The situation in Turkey remains particularly favorable. Thanks to abundant precipitation and moderate temperatures in the spring, record high yields of major crops are expected. In particular, the yield of soft wheat is forecast to be 15% above average, durum wheat - 22%, and barley - 39%.

A strong harvest in Turkey could reduce the country's need for grain imports, particularly from Ukraine. At the same time, good harvest prospects in Bulgaria and Romania will increase competition on the Black Sea market, putting additional pressure on grain prices at the start of the new season.