The agency Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for the EU oilseed crop for the third time, but this did not affect rapeseed prices

The agency Strategie Grains lowered its forecast for the EU rape harvest in 2024 for the third time in a row, now from 17.8 to 17.27 million tons, which would be 14% less than the production in 2023. However, this had almost no effect on rapeseed quotes, which continued to fall under the pressure of falling oil and soybean prices.

The sunflower production forecast was also lowered from 10.49 to 9.65 million tons (9.8 million tons in 2023), while the estimate of the soybean harvest was left at 2.99 million tons, which would be 4.6% higher than last year. since the decrease in productivity will be compensated by larger sowing areas.

We will remind you that the other day the European Commission lowered the forecast for the EU rape harvest in 2024/25 MR by 0.5 to 18.3 million tons.

On the Paris exchange yesterday, November rapeseed futures fell 0.8% to €476.5/t or $515.76/t (-5.2% for the week), not reacting to new forecasts. At the same time, August futures rose by 1.2% to €464.5/t or $502.77/t (-6.3% for the week), partially recovering from Friday's decline.

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange yesterday fell 1.7% to CAD 635/t or $458.7/t (-6.1% for the week).

Quotations are under pressure from a sharp drop in soybean and oil prices. Over two sessions, November soybean futures in Chicago fell 3.8% to $382/t (-6.7% for the month) on the back of good US crop conditions, while September oil futures fell 3. 3% to $79.8/barrel (-8.7% for the month) on forecasts of a reduction in global demand.

In Ukraine, the purchase prices for rape with delivery to the Black Sea ports this week fell by another 500 hryvnias/t to 22,400-22,500 hryvnias/t or $470-475/t, so farmers almost stopped sales. The strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate from UAH 41.4 to UAH 40.95/$ also forces exporters to lower their purchase prices.

Dry and hot weather can reduce soybean and sunflower yields, so farmers are holding back sales as they try to gauge late crop yield potential and future income.