The MARS agency lowered the forecast for corn and sunflower yields in the EU due to drought

Against the background of warm and dry weather at the beginning of autumn, which aggravated the drought in the south-east of the EU, the MARS agency lowered its forecast for the corn yield in the EU from 7.26 to 7.13 t/ha compared to the September estimates, which would be 5% below the average of 5 -annual indicator, but will exceed the level of dry 2022 by 21%. The sunflower yield forecast has been reduced from 2.2 to 2.1 t/ha, which will be 5% lower than the average 5-year indicator.

The decrease in the forecast is due to the deterioration of spring harvests in Hungary, Romania, Greece and Bulgaria. Drought has prevented rape seeding in the south-east of the EU, so some fields may be re-sown. It may also become difficult to sow cereals if there are no rains in the near future. In the north of the EU, warm autumn weather helped crops to mature after heavy summer rains and supported the sowing of winter canola and cereals.

A decrease in crop forecasts for the EU will give Ukrainian exporters a chance to increase supplies of agricultural products in this direction.

According to the European Commission, in the 2023/24 FY, corn imports to the EU decreased by 40% compared to the corresponding period of the previous season to 5.067 million tons, of which 2.248 million tons were supplied by Brazil, 2.211 million tons by Ukraine and 0.22 million tons by Canada. . Spain purchased 2.104 million tons of corn, the Netherlands - 0.675 million tons, Italy - 0.617 million tons.

November corn futures on the Paris exchange yesterday fell another €1.75/t to €203.5/t or $215.8/t (-3.7% for the month, -48% for the year).

In the Northern Hemisphere, weather favors active corn harvesting, increasing supply and putting pressure on prices.

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of October 20, Ukraine harvested 39.2 million tons of grain, including 9.3 million tons of corn.

Due to the drought, the experts of APC-Inform reduced the forecast of the corn harvest in Ukraine from 25.6 to 24.8 million tons, although the USDA estimates it at 28 million tons. It is expected that the export of corn will amount to 13 million tons, but as of October 24, only 3 were shipped. 3 million tons compared to 6.3 million tons for this period last year.

The purchase prices for corn with delivery to the ports of the Danube or the Black Sea are only $120-135/t, which does not contribute to the activation of supplies. Exports through the western borders to the EU are limited by logistical problems (truck queues of 12-16 days) and low demand prices from buyers.