MARS agency raised wheat and rapeseed yield forecasts, but lowered corn and sunflower yields in the EU
Hot and dry weather in Southern and Eastern Europe has negatively affected the sowing of spring crops such as corn, sunflower and soybeans, while in Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, southern Ukraine and Turkey, prolonged drought has caused irreversible damage to crops.
Heat and rainfall deficits have also reduced yield expectations in Hungary and eastern Croatia. At the same time, conditions have been more favourable in western and northern Europe. In Spain, Portugal, Italy, northern France, the Benelux countries, Germany and Poland, sufficient rainfall and moderate temperatures (despite some periods of extreme heat) have supported the development of summer crops, and yields are expected to be at or above the 5-year average. Pastures in northern Europe are also in good shape.
The winter crop season is almost over and the results generally confirm our previous positive forecasts. Only in the Baltic countries did excessive rainfall hinder the harvest. Looking ahead, cooler and wetter conditions are forecast for Central and Northern Europe, while hot and dry conditions are expected to persist in the southern and southeastern regions.
In their monthly report, MARS analysts increased the forecast for the average yield of common wheat in the EU in 2025 from 6.09 to 6.15 t/ha compared to the July estimate, which will be 9% higher than last year and 7% higher than the 5-year average.
The forecast for the average yield of spring barley has been increased compared to July estimates from 5 t/ha to 5.01 t/ha, and for winter barley - from 5.45 t/ha to 5.51 t/ha.
At the same time, due to the impact of dry conditions, yield estimates for late grain crops have been lowered. In particular, the forecast for the average corn yield has been reduced from 7.18 to 6.93 t/ha, which will be 2% lower than the 5-year average.
The estimate of the average yield of rapeseed in the EU has been increased from 3.2 to 3.24 t/ha (3.16 t/ha on average over 5 years), and soybeans from 2.65 to 2.74 t/ha (2.67 t/ha), while the forecast for sunflower yield has been reduced from 1.94 to 1.83 t/ha (2.02 t/ha).
