Coceral agency lowers EU grain harvest forecast for 2026, but raises rapeseed production forecast

In its updated forecast for the production of major crops in the EU-27 and the UK for 2026, the Coceral agency reduced the estimate of the total gross harvest by 8 million tons to 279 million tons (307.4 million tons in 2025) compared to the July estimates.

In particular, the production forecast (excluding hard varieties) has been reduced from 140.8 to 137.5 million tons (148.7 million tons in 2025), as crops in Germany, Poland, and to a lesser extent in France, were severely affected by the summer heat.

The forecast for corn production has been reduced from 52.7 to 48.6 million tonnes (56.5 million tonnes last year) due to extreme heat and drought during pollination in western and central Europe. For France, the estimate has been reduced from 9.4 to 7.6 million tonnes (13.8 million tonnes last year), which will be the lowest figure in the last 20 years. Hungary will harvest only 1.9 million tonnes of corn (3.8 million tonnes last year). In addition to weather conditions, the reduction in production was also due to a decrease in the area sown throughout the EU.

At the same time, the forecast for barley production has been increased from 57.6 to 57.9 million tons, which will still be inferior to last year's 63.3 million tons.

The rapeseed harvest forecast has been increased from 21.2 to 21.3 million tons (21.4 million tons last year), as rapeseed crops were less affected by the heat than wheat and corn, and the sown area increased compared to last year from 6.4 to 6.8 million hectares.

Despite the drought, the EU sunflower harvest will exceed last year's and will amount to 10.1-10.2 million tonnes thanks to a significant increase in sowing areas. Farmers in many countries (including Romania, Bulgaria and France) have reduced the area sown with corn in favor of sunflower, which has better drought resistance.

Soybean production will be 2.9-3 million tons, which will practically correspond to last year's level. In the EU, the trend of a slight increase in production continues due to an increase in areas in the central and southern regions.

The total production of major oilseeds (sunflower, rapeseed, soybean) in the EU in 2026 will be 34.3-34.5 million tons, which will exceed the 2025 figure and partially compensate processors for the shortage of feed grain due to an increase in the supply of meal and oil.