ABARES sharply raises Australian wheat, barley and canola production forecasts for 2024/25 MY

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), part of the country's Department of Agriculture, has raised its 2024/25 wheat production forecast by 6.9%, barley by 14% and canola by 5.4% compared to its December estimates, while the forecast for winter crop production in Western Australia and New South Wales has been increased by 19% and 6% respectively.

Forecasts of increased production in Australia, the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter, are easing concerns about global supplies and helping to lower prices.

According to ABARES, in the 2024/25 MY, Australia increased wheat production by 31% to 34.1 million tons compared to the previous season (which exceeded the 10-year average by 28% and the USDA forecast in February of 32 million tons) and barley by 23% to 13.3 million tons (17% above the 10-year average), but reduced canola production by 2% to 5.9 million tons (31% above the 10-year average).

In December, ABARES forecast that wheat production in the country would be 31.9 million tons, barley - 11.7 million tons, canola - 5.6 million tons, and in June, wheat production was estimated at 29.1 million tons.

In addition, the forecast for sorghum production has been increased compared to December estimates from 2.1 million tons to 2.3 million tons, cotton from 1 million tons to 1.1 million tons, while the forecast for rice production has been reduced from 449 thousand tons to 444 thousand tons.

According to ABARES forecasts, in 2025/26 MY, wheat production in Australia will be 30.5 million tons, barley - 12.6 million tons, canola - 6 million tons. At the same time, wheat exports in 2024/25 MY will be 22.2 million tons, and in 2025/26 MY - 22.8 million tons.

Currently, favorable weather improves the outlook for the summer crop harvest, which will be harvested in the coming months.