ABARES predicts significant reduction in wheat, barley and canola harvests in Australia

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Economics and Resources (ABARES) released its first winter crop forecasts for the 2026/27 MY in a June report. Winter crop production is expected to decline by 21% to 54.5 million tonnes compared to the previous season due to uneven summer and autumn rainfall and a possible winter drought.

In particular, wheat production will decrease by 26% to 26.7 million tonnes (which will be 23% below the 5-year average) due to a 12% reduction in sowing area to the lowest level since 2019/20 MY of 10.9 million hectares due to critically low soil moisture levels in New South Wales and Queensland, which will also lead to a sharp deterioration in yields.

Canola production is expected to fall 20% to 6.2 million tonnes and area to 3.5 million hectares, as small increases in Western and South Australia and Victoria are offset by a significant reduction in New South Wales. However, canola is more profitable than cereals, so farmers are continuing to grow it if weather conditions allow.

Barley production will decrease by 15% compared to the previous year to 14.1 million tons, but the area under it will increase by 4% to 5 million hectares due to the crop's lower need for nitrogen fertilizers, the prices of which have increased due to the war with Iran.

According to the ABARES forecast, in June-August, anomalous heat will prevail in the main agricultural regions of Australia, which will lead to a severe deficit of precipitation. Experts' attention is focused on New South Wales and Queensland, where the lack of precipitation in April and May has reduced soil moisture reserves ahead of planting. In Western Australia - the main canola growing region - there was practically no rain until mid-May, and the amount of precipitation will be significantly below normal by August.

Due to adverse weather conditions, canola yields in Australia will decrease by 10-20% compared to last year, from 2.1 to 1.7 t/ha.