Rainfall in Brazil and Argentina improves prospects for soybean and corn crops

Rainfall intensity increased in central Brazil this week, with additional rains in Argentina easing concerns about the fate of the future soybean crop.

Throughout the week, central Brazil has experienced the typical rainfall of this time of year, when the country's rainy season continues. Their number is still insufficient to cover the soil moisture deficit and significantly improve the condition of the crops. Next week is expected to reduce precipitation and increase temperatures, so the weather factor will again affect the markets. Local analysts have lowered soybean yield forecasts, but thanks to a 3% increase in sowing area, production estimates remain at the level of 157-164 million tons, which will exceed last year's figure.

In Argentina, the rains passed the other day, which improved the prospects for the soybean and corn harvest, the sowing of which was somewhat accelerated. Against the backdrop of improved weather, analysts at Refinitiv Commodities Research raised their forecast for corn production in FY 2023/24 by 1.9 million tons to 54 million tons (41.4 million tons in FY 2022/23), which will be harvested from 8 2 million hectares. Soybean production forecast increased by 1.7 to 48.9 (25) million tons, which will be harvested from 16.9 million hectares. More favorable than last year, the weather adds optimism to traders, especially in view of the precipitation forecast for the next week.

In the Midwest and the Plains of the United States , favorable precipitation for winter crops has passed. Dry and frosty weather next week will allow the corn harvest to be completed. Winter wheat crops remain in good condition thanks to good autumn rainfall.

Much of Europe is receiving rains, and the weather favors the development of winter wheat and canola crops. Scattered precipitation will continue in the region next week.

In the Black Sea region, rains have passed and temperatures have dropped, so the winter wheat crops, which are in good condition, are entering the rest phase.

In Ukraine, the weather conditions contribute to the completion of the vegetation of winter crops, which are mostly in good or satisfactory condition. In the south, where there were no effective precipitations for more than 2 months, there were rains in the amount of 100-200% of the monthly norm, which replenished soil moisture reserves and reduced drought phenomena.

In the entire territory, with the exception of some areas of the southern and western regions, on November 18-19 (1.5-2.5 weeks earlier than the average long-term terms), temperatures fell below 0 ^o C, which led to the end of the active vegetation of winter crops.