The hryvnia exchange rate declined slightly amid reduced demand for foreign currency

A slight decrease in political tension regarding possible open aggression of Russia against Ukraine against the background of a significant number of meetings and negotiations between American and European diplomats and Russians stopped the growth of the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market.

Starting from January 17, the dollar on the interbank market rose to UAH 28.5/., but at the end of the week it fell to UAH 28.22/28.24/. against the background of an increase in currency supply from exporters who tried to sell as much as possible at a high exchange rate.

Importers, non-residents and speculators, realizing that the exchange rate had reached a maximum, reduced the volume of purchases, especially given the active actions of the NBU to maintain the exchange rate at the level of 28.2-28.3 UAH/..

To contain the jumps in the exchange rate, the National Bank sold 3 321 million last week, while попередньому 330.7 million was sold in the previous week, and за 100 million in the first week of the new year. The fact that almost 30% of the weekly trading volume was made up of foreign currency sales by the National Bank indicates the accumulation of significant amounts of unrealized foreign currency earnings among exporters, which, if the exchange rate declines, will end up on the interbank market and increase pressure on the dollar. On Friday, demand for foreign currency fell and trading volume decreased to 1 100 million compared to.200 million on the previous day, and the NBU bought викуп 20 million for the first time in 2022, which signaled a possible market reversal in the event of an increase in offers.

It is worth noting that farmers have not yet sold a significant part of their products, so in the near future the supply of corn and sunflower will increase, and, as a result, the volume of foreign currency earnings, especially given the need for funds on the eve of the start of sowing.

In the current season, Ukraine exported 13.7 million tons of corn, or 41% of the forecast for my 2021/22, while sunflower oil exports amounted to only 1.35 million tons, or 22% of the forecast, which is 1.5 million tons less than last year. Although usually most of the sunflower oil was sold earlier in the first half of the season before the release of soybean oil from South America in February – March.

In the near future, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar will remain under pressure from political news from Russia, which also leads to an increase in gas and oil prices in Europe and the world. This once again confirms that Russia is escalating disputes with the West in order to raise the prices of its export goods, and is using the energy crisis as a tool to put pressure on politicians within the EU, increasing disagreements between diplomats in Germany and other countries.