The USDA report collapse of corn prices by 7%
amid the uncertainty with the harvest of corn in the United States for late sowing, traders were looking forward to the report USDA with the final data on sown area. However, new balance, the data which are contrary to the leading analytical agencies, shocked the market and collapsed the price of corn by 7%.
In August and September last year, the experts USDA increased forecast corn production at 9 and 6 million tons to 376 million tonnes, although analysts estimated it at 365-368 million tons, but in the end it totaled 366 million tons.
this year the situation is repeated, and compared with analysts forecasts USDA look too optimistic. In projections from may to July, the acreage under maize in USDA estimated at 91.7 million acres in the August report reduced them to 90 million acres, and area for harvest was estimated at 82 million acres, while other analysts are predicting at around 80 million acres.
Despite the decrease in acreage, the forecast of corn production in the U.S. experts USDA increased compared to the July balance of 0.6 million tonnes to 353,09 million tons due to increased yield estimation from 166 to 169,5 bushels/acre compared to 176,4 bushels/acre last year.
According to the median estimate of analytical agencies the corn production in the U.S. of 335,7 million tons, the yield of 164.7 bushels/acre, the area to harvest – 80.2 million acres.
the Forecast of world maize production compared to the July report increased by 3.1 million tonnes to 1108,24 million tons (2018 – 1123 MT) due to the higher harvest estimates for Ukraine by 2.5 million tons and the United States by 0.6 million tons Forecast world consumption of corn decreased by 5.88 million tonnes to 1129,09 million tons (2018 – 1133,82 million tons) due to the reduction of consumption in China by 2 million tons and Brazil by 1.5 million tonnes Due to production growth and reducing consumption ending stocks will increase from 298,92 to 307,72 million tons in comparison with 328,58 million tons in 2018.
Reduction of corn exports from the U.S. by 2.5 million tonnes to 52,07 million tons (2018 – 53.3 million tons) will be offset by increased supplies from Ukraine by 2 million tonnes to 30 million tonnes (in 2018 29,5 million tons).
After the publication of the report of the September futures for corn fell by 7.9% to 148,8 $/t in December – by 8.2% to 151,96 $/t