The increase in corn prices in Ukraine limits the fall in world quotations

During the week, corn prices in Ukraine rose against the background of the rising dollar rate and export demand, as well as a decrease in offers from producers.

Rumors of China's cancellation of corn contracts, which caused prices to fall last week, were not confirmed, and purchase prices in Black Sea ports rose by UAH 150-200/t to UAH 6,700-6,900/t or $155-157/t.

UZA President M. Gorbachev explained that due to the shortage of grain storage, China is changing the terms of deliveries, but does not cancel previously concluded agreements.

According to the State Customs Service, China imported 1.7 million tons of corn in March, which is 34.2% less than in February and 22% less than March's level of 22%. The reduction in imports is due to a decrease in consumption by local processors and an increase in the supply of their own harvest. But in general, in October - March, China imported 18.5 million tons of corn compared to 9.7 million tons in the same period of the previous season.

In 2023/24, Ukraine exported 21.17 million tons of corn (out of USDA's forecast of 24.5 million tons), which is 10.4% less than last year's pace. At the same time, 2.4 million tons of grain were exported for April 1-17, compared to 1 million tons for the same period last year.

May corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 2% this week to $168.1/t (-2.8% for the month) amid lower oil prices and better weather in the US.

In 2023/24, the US MR exported 28.68 million tons of corn, which is 33.74% higher than last year's pace, so the USDA forecast of 53.3 million tons will be achieved if 1.2 million tons are exported every week until the end of the season.

According to NASS, 8% of planned U.S. corn acreage was planted as of April 12 (5% 5-year average), and warm weather and rains will accelerate next week's planting.

World quotations support data on the state of corn crops in Brazil and Argentina. FAS USDA experts reduced Argentina's 2023/24 corn harvest forecast from 57 to 51 million tons due to dry weather in some areas and disease outbreaks. In FY 2024/25, 48 million tonnes of corn are expected to be harvested from 6 million hectares, as farmers switch from corn to soybeans, and planting areas will be the lowest in 6 years.

In Brazil, in the main regions of corn cultivation of the second crop, there is a deficit of precipitation on the eve of the dry season.

IGC experts lowered the forecast for world corn production in FY 2024/25 by 7 million tons to 1,226 million tons (1,223 million tons in FY 2023/24) due to a decrease in the harvest in the USA. According to the forecast, world ending stocks will grow from 289 million tons in FY 2023/24 to 291 million tons in FY 2024/25.