The increase in the dollar rate stopped the fall in purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine

After a week's drop, the export prices of demand for wheat in Ukraine in hryvnia slightly increased thanks to the rapid growth of the dollar exchange rate on the interbank exchange in two days by 1.3% from 37.66 to 38.15 hryvnias/$.

This week, purchase prices for fodder wheat in Black Sea ports remained at $150-154/t, but hryvnia prices rose by UAH 50-100/t to UAH 6,300-6,400/t amid limited supply from producers.

At the same time, the number of offers of food wheat with a protein of 12.5%, which processors buy for UAH 7,000/t with delivery to the mill, is increasing. Low demand for flour does not allow to raise prices, while exporters are almost not interested in wheat with a protein of 12.5% and buy wheat 3 cl at $170/t or 7250-7300 UAH/t and wheat 2 cl at $175/t or 7400 -7,600 UAH/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.

According to the State Customs Service, Ukraine exported 9.969 million tons of wheat in the 2023/24 fiscal year (as of February 12), compared to 10.388 million tons in the same period last year. In order to reach the 15 million tons predicted by the USDA, it is necessary to export 1-1.5 million tons every month by the end of the season, which is realistic, given the better prices for Ukrainian wheat than for Russian and European wheat.

The biggest damage was caused by the drop in world quotations to the prices of Ukrainian food wheat, which is difficult to compete with higher-quality Russian and European grain. Export demand prices for it fell by $5-7/t to $170-175/t or UAH 6,950-7,400/t with delivery to ports.

Pending data on the state of crops in the USA and the Russian Federation after the winter and forecasts of wheat sowing areas in the USA, global quotations remain at a low level.

During the week in Texas, the number of winter wheat in good or excellent condition fell 4% to 42%, but weak export rates are weighing on prices.

According to the US MSG, in the 2023/24 FY, wheat exports amounted to 11.71 million tons, compared to 14.3 million tons for the same period last year.

March futures for wheat yesterday had the following dynamics:

• remained at the level of $219.5/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• fell by 0.7% to $218.4/t - for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City,
• fell 1.6% to $246.8/t - HRS hard spring wheat in Minneapolis,
• rose by 0.2% to €209/t or $221.5/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext.

Prices for European wheat were supported by a decrease in the forecast of soft wheat sowing areas in France from 4.49 to 4.36 million hectares, which will be 7.7% lower than last year's figure.

In 2023/24 FY, wheat exports from the EU decreased by 6% compared to the previous season to 18.65 million tons, although the export forecast was increased to 36.5 million tons (35 million tons in 2022/23 FY).

The increase in exports from the Russian Federation increases the pressure on the market, and rumors about an increase in the grain export quota established for the period February 15 - July 1 by another 4 million tons to 32 million tons indicate an active sale of stocks in anticipation of a new high wheat harvest.