The decrease in sunflower oil prices has stopped the increase in sunflower prices in Ukraine

Last week, the purchase prices of sunflower in Ukraine increased by 400-600 UAH/t to 15,000-15,500 UAH/t (including VAT) with delivery to the plant against the background of a 4% increase in sunflower oil prices, as well as a jump in the dollar exchange rate by almost 2 % for the last two weeks. Many processors were paying a higher price for fast delivery, but at the end of the week they lowered their prices following the drop in the interbank dollar rate.

Demand prices for sunflower oil with delivery to buyers for the week increased by $10/t to $855/t, but in Ukraine, spot prices in Black Sea ports remained at $770-785/t, while demand prices for sunflower meal in Black Sea ports ports increased by $5-10/t to $170-175/t.

The export of sunflower oil from Ukraine for March 14-20 increased in comparison with the previous week by 67% to 178 thousand tons, and in general in 2023/24 MR reached 3.6 million tons from the forecasted 6 million tons.

Demand prices for Ukrainian sunflower for delivery to Bulgaria increased by only $5-10/t to $420-435/t DAP.

Rising oil prices have led to higher prices for palm and soybean oil, supporting the prices of sunflower oil, which is still the most affordable on the market.

However, last week, palm oil prices fell by 2.3% to $891/t, while May soybean oil futures fell by 3.8% to $1,048/t. It is likely that prices will also continue to decline in April amid a seasonal build-up in soybean and palm oil supplies.

So far, sunflower oil prices have been supported by an unexpected decline in sunflower production forecasts in Argentina, where heavy rains could damage crops and reduce yields. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), as of March 20, sunflower in the country has been threshed by 59.2%, and the average yield is 2 t/ha compared to 1.95 t/ha last week. However, exchange experts lowered the forecast for the sunflower harvest in 2023/24 MR by 0.2 to 3.6 million tons (4.6 million tons in 2022/23 MR) and left the soybean harvest forecast at 52.5 (25) million tons.

At the same time, the Sagyp agency lowered the forecast for the sunflower harvest in Argentina in 2023/24 MR by 0.1 to 4.4 million tons.