Lower wheat prices on world stock exchanges lower prices in Ukraine

The rapid speculative increase in wheat prices at the beginning of the week, due to unfavorable weather in the United States, was replaced yesterday by a sharp drop due to precipitation forecasts in the regions where winter wheat is grown and traders record profits.

Purchase prices for wheat in Ukraine from Monday, following World quotes, increased in ports to 3 305-307/ton, but yesterday they decreased by 2 2-3/ton to.300-305/ton, which corresponds to the level of last week. However, the hryvnia yesterday fell in price against the dollar by another 10 kopecks to 28.8 UAH/ т, so that Hryvnia purchase prices remained in ports at the level of 9850-10000 UAH/ton.

The main reason for the increase in exchange prices remains the possible aggression of Russia against Ukraine, which may lead to a reduction in wheat supplies. However, recent events indicate that the situation will be resolved through diplomatic, not military means.

March wheat futures in the United States have risen by 3.5-4.5% since Monday, but yesterday they fell by 2-2. 9%, namely::

• by 8 8.45 / ton to Чикаго 292.1/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 8 8.27 / ton to H 299.5/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 6 6.89/ton to.336.2 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

March European wheat futures on Paris Euronext rose by €18.25/ton from Monday, but yesterday fell by €9.5/ton to €281.85/ton or.315.68/ton.

March Black Sea wheat futures in Chicago yesterday, under pressure from low prices for European wheat, fell by 1 1.8/ton to.326/ton, completely losing growth at the beginning of the week.

Prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein remain at F 326-330/ton FOB for deliveries in February.

According to SovEcon, Russia exported 16 million tons of wheat in my 2021/22 as of January 19, which is 40% lower than last year's pace. According to the agency's estimates, another 2.4 million tons will be exported in January. if wheat exports are limited to 8 million tons from February 15 to June 30, then in general it will not exceed 27-28 million tons in the season, although the USDA estimates it at 35 million tons.

It is also unclear how much wheat will be shipped to Customs Union countries that, like Kazakhstan, buy Russian wheat and then export flour.