Lower forecasts for soybean yields in the United States and canola in Canada slightly supported prices

Traders ' attention is focused on forecasts of canola crops in Canada and soybeans in the United States, where the drought has damaged crops and led to a sharp increase in prices recently.

In the August balance sheet, USDA experts lowered their forecast compared to July estimates world production of oilseeds in 2021/22 MG by 6 million tons to 630 million tons (600.2 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to a decrease in the yield of canola in Canada by 4.2 million tons and soybeans in the United States by 2 million tons.

Forecasts for global oilseed trade by 4 million tons and processing volume by 4 million tons to 530 million tons were also lowered.

To the world soy balance sheet for my 2021/22 compared to July, the following changes were made::

• initial inventory forecast increased by 1.33 million tons to 92.82 million tons,
• production forecast reduced by 1.59 million tons to 383.63 million tons (363.26 million tons in 2020/21 mg and 339 million tons in 2019/20 MG),
• consumption forecast reduced by 2.5 million tons to 378.59 million tons (366.1 million tons in my 2020/21),
• the estimate of Final reserves was increased by 1.66 million tons to 96.15 million tons.

The main changes relate to the United States and China. For the United States, the forecast for a decrease in the soybean crop by 1.8 million tons will be offset by an increase in initial stocks by 0.68 million tons, a reduction in processing by 0.55 million tons and exports by 0.55 million tons. for China, the estimate of Final stocks was increased by 2 million tons due to a reduction in processing by 2 million tons and imports by 1 million tons.

However, November soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange remained at 4 492/ton yesterday, as traders have already taken into account the change in forecasts in trading strategies.

Global forecast rapeseed production in my 2021/22, it was reduced by 4.165 million tons to 69.97 million tons (71.8 million tons in 2020) due to a decrease in the estimate of the canola crop in Canada by 4.2 million tons to 16 million tons (19 million tons in 2020).

The estimate of canola exports from Canada was reduced by 3.2 million tons to 6.9 million tons, and rapeseed imports to the EU – by 1.25 million tons to 5.2 million tons compared to 6.2 million tons in 2020/21 MG.

• Canola prices on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange fell 1.3% yesterday to 877.2 CAD/ton, or 7 700/ton, as traders expected a more significant decline in the forecast for the canola harvest.
• At the same time, November rapeseed futures on Paris Euronext rose by 2.5 €/ton to 555.5 €/ton or 6 652/ton.

Global forecast sunflower production in my 2021/22, it was left at the level of 56.99 million tons, which is 7.27 million tons higher than the current season's harvest. Unexpected for the market was the decrease in the forecast of the sunflower harvest in Russia by 1 million tons to 15.5 million tons (13.3 million tons in 2020), despite an increase in sowing areas by 14%. At the same time, for Ukraine, the forecast for the sunflower harvest was increased by 0.8 million tons to 17.5 million tons compared to last year's 14.1 million tons.

So far, the oilseed market remains under pressure from importers and new production forecasts for the US, EU, Ukraine and Russia.