USDA experts downgraded the forecast of corn stocks in the current and next season supported the quotation

The new 2024/25 maize balance sheet, released in WASDE's May supply and demand report, lowered forecasts for world production, exports and stocks, but raised estimates for consumption, leading to higher quotes.

At the same time, pressure on prices reinforced the reduction of forecasts for the 2023/24 FY corn harvest for Brazil by 2 to 122 million tonnes and Argentina by 2 to 53 million tonnes, while traders expected a larger adjustment.

In comparison with the balance for 2023/24 MR, the new corn balance for 2024/25 MR underwent the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was increased to 313.08 million tons (300.9 million tons in FY 2023/24 and 313.6 million tons in FY 2022/23).
• The global production forecast has been reduced to 1,219.93 million tons (1,228.1 million tons in FY 2023/24, 1,157.74 million tons in FY 2022/23, 1,217 million tons in FY 2021/22, and 1,129 million tons in FY 2020/21 ), in particular for the USA - by 3% from a record 389.69 to 377.46 million tons due to the reduction in the area of corn sowing in favor of soybeans, for Ukraine - up to 27 million tons (31 million tons in 2023/24 MR and 27 million tons in 2022/23 MR), while UZA estimates it at 26 million tons, for Argentina - from 53 to 51 million tons. At the same time, the harvest estimates for Brazil were increased to 127 (122) million tons, the EU - to 64.8 (61) million tons, China - from 288.84 (292) million tons.
• The estimate of world consumption was increased to 1220.75 (1215.9; 1166.34; 1202.9 and 1143.29) million tons, in particular for China – by 6 to 313 million tons.
• The global export forecast was reduced to 191.1 million tons (197.38 million tons in 2023/24 MR and 180.3 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular for Ukraine – to 24 (26) million tons, Argentina – to 36 (38) million tons, Brazil - up to 49 (50) million tons, while the estimate for the United States was raised to 55.88 (54.6) million tons, thanks to which it will become the world's largest corn exporter for the second consecutive season and increase its share by market
• The global import forecast was reduced to 184.37 (185.75; 172.21 and 184.59) million tons, in particular for the EU – to 18 (21) million tons, Canada – to 2.2 (3.2) million tons, as well as for Canada, Iraq and Venezuela, partially offset by increased imports to Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, Egypt and Iran. For China, the estimate was left at the current season's level of 23 million tons, while the country's authorities estimate imports at 13 million tons.
• The estimate of ending reserves was reduced to 312.27 (313.08; 302.19; 306.9 and 293.29) million tons, although analysts estimated them at 317.84 million tons. For the United States, the forecast was increased to 53.4 (51, 36) million tons, and to China - up to 212.84 (210.86) million tons.

According to the report, July corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose by 2.9% to $184.9/t (+9.5% compared to the data after the release of the report in April), and December - by 2.5 % to $193.7/t (+5.6%).

In Ukraine, corn prices are rising in line with world prices, which, against the background of reduced stocks, may lead to an increase in the area of sowing.