The increase in offers lowers soybean prices in Ukraine

Congestion of export terminals in the Danube ports and a decrease in demand prices from the EU against the background of acceleration of harvesting and an increase in the supply of soybeans on the domestic market of Ukraine leads to a decrease in purchase prices.

As of September 29, Ukraine harvested 2.2 million tons of soybeans from 0.86 million hectares with a yield of 2.56 tons/ha. Thanks to the dry weather, the pace of harvesting is 2 weeks ahead of last year, and the yield remains at the level of the previous season.

Purchase prices for GMO soybeans with delivery to the factory remain at the level of UAH 13,000-13,500/t, to the Danube ports – $345-355/t, while with delivery to the western borders they have fallen sharply. During the week, demand prices for soybeans with GMO delivered to Romania decreased from 410 to 390 $/t, for non-GMO soybeans delivered to Italy or Hungary - from 410-420 €/t to 390-410 €/t. The prices of soybeans without GMO at processors remain at the level of UAH 14,000-14,500/ton with delivery to the factory. Last year, soybeans with GMOs were offered at UAH 13,000-14,000/t, without GMOs at UAH 15,000-16,000/t with delivery to the factory. That is, the prices for the year almost did not change, while the price of sunflower fell from UAH 14,500-15,000/t to UAH 10,500-11,500/t with delivery to the plant.

In the near term, prices will fall further under pressure from low sunflower prices and a year-over-year harvest amid limited exports through Black Sea ports.

The Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine increased the forecasts of the production of oil crops to 21.6 million, in particular, sunflower – to 13 million tons, rapeseed – to a record 4 million tons, soybeans – to 4.6 million tons, although experts estimated them at 14 million tons, 4.5 million tons and 4.5 million tons, respectively.

On the exchange in Chicago, November futures for soybeans in September fell by 6.9% to $469/t against the background of favorable conditions for harvesting in the USA, where soybeans were harvested on 23% of the area as of October 1 (22% on average over 5 years ).

In September, the United States exported 1.974 million tons of soybeans, which is 158 thousand tons higher than in September 2022, while Brazil exported 6.4 million tons of soybeans.

According to the USDA, as of September 1, soybean stocks in the US fell to a two-year low of 7.3 million tons (7.5 million tons last year) amid active demand from processors, which supports stock market quotations.

The arrival of a new crop on the market and a decrease in demand from China could increase pressure on prices in the near term.