A lull in the Interbank market: what to expect?

oil Prices last week fell 9%, the Russian ruble depreciated by 1% and the U.S. Federal reserve on Wednesday may announce the rate hike. The Russian currency also pushes the March peak of payments on external debt (11.6 billion $), while it shows the extraordinary stubbornness.

in Ukraine In the interbank the dollar fell from of 26.90/26,94 to 26.88/26,92 UAH. However, the following factors do not allow to regard it as a continuation of the trend of the strengthening of the national currency:

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• too low trading volume for the most active days of the week – only 196,48 million $,
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• the lack of reaction of the foreign exchange market on the growth of balances on correspondent accounts in two days on more than 10.3 billion.

the Low activity of speculators indicates that the market froze in anticipation of the new tactics of trading or trend change.

the Main driver of trading is the necessity of mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings. However, its volume is so tiny that the market balances supply and demand.

accumulated over recent days the hryvnia liquidity will enter the market: the banks will start to buy certificates of Deposit, government bonds or currency. Part of the hryvnia will go to pay off tax liabilities at the end of March.

experts expect the dollar return on positions in 27 UAH/$ and above, with possible exchange rate fluctuations for the next few interbank sessions.

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the Course of trading on 14 March

With the morning quotes of 26.90/26,94 UAH/$ rate rapidly began to increase and reached the level 26,98. However, after-market sellers of currency by 11:00 decreased to 26.88/26,94, and before the end of trading to 26.88/26,92 UAH.

the national Bank on the market is not out, and most of the operations took place in the framework of the 26,904-26,914 UAH.

in General, 14 March was 372 transactions in the amount of 196,48 million dollars at the weighted average exchange rate 26,9043 UAH/$.