Purchase prices for barley in Ukraine are growing against the background of rising prices for wheat and corn

Updated data on the harvesting campaign confirms an increase in barley production by 30-35%, which increased pressure on prices at the beginning of the season. However, in the last week, barley prices received support from the rapid rise in the price of wheat and corn.

As of July 29, 6.863 million tons of barley were threshed in Ukraine from 1.671 million hectares or 68% of the area with a yield of 4.11 t/ha (3.54 t/ha last year). The forecast for the harvest was raised to 10.5 – 10.8 million tons, and exports-to 5-6 million tons compared to last year's 8 million tons and 4.2 million tons, respectively.

Lower forecasts for wheat and barley production in Russia have led to higher world wheat prices, especially given the poor yield of spring wheat in the United States.

In Ukraine, purchase prices for wheat for the week increased in the port by another 1 10-20/ton to 2 235-245/ton, thanks to which forward prices for corn supplies in the port in October resumed to 2 240-245/ton.

All this supported the prices of barley, which for the week increased in ports by 1 10-15/ton to 2 215-220/ton or 6700-6800 UAH/ton, although they have not yet reached the level of the beginning of the season, when they were 2 225-230/ton.

The decline in forecasts of the barley harvest in Russia compared to last year from 20.9 to 19.3-19.5 million tons due to reduced sowing areas and low yields also supports prices for Ukrainian barley. However, it should be borne in mind that the forecast of barley exports from Russia remains at the level of 5.3-5.5 million tons compared to 6.4 million tons in 2020/21 MG.

As of August 2, 9.25 million tons of winter and spring barley were threshed in Russia from 3.1 million hectares or 40% of the area with a yield of 2.98 t/ha, although last year at this time 30.5% was threshed, and the yield was 3.25 t/ha.

Traders yesterday expected the results of the tender in Turkey, where the state agency TMO planned to purchase 515 thousand tons of barley for delivery on September 1-15. First, there were data on the concluded deal at a price of C 280/ton C&F, which was 40-49 $/ton higher than the price of the previous tender on July 12. But at the end of the day, it became known that the tender was canceled due to high offer prices, which today will increase pressure on prices.