Ukraine enters the new season with insignificant transitional stocks, while the harvest will be quite low

At the Grain Ukraine-2023 conference, Deputy Minister of Agricultural Policy Taras Vysotskyi said that at the beginning of the 2023/24 fiscal year, transitional stocks of agricultural products in Ukraine will amount to 5 million tons, which will correspond to the pre-war average statistics, while last year, on July 1, stocks amounted to 22 million tons due to the blocking of exports from Black Sea ports.

He added that Ukraine insists on the need to ensure the free movement of agricultural products by EU countries in order to have confidence in the stable export of the new harvest, which will begin to be harvested in a few weeks. This will increase trade volumes, reduce logistics costs, and increase farmers' profits.

According to the forecast of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA), in 2023 the harvest of grain and oil crops in Ukraine will decrease compared to 2022 by 5.8 million tons or 8% to 68 million tons, in particular, barley - from 5.8 to 4.4 million tons, corn - from 27.3 to 23.3 million tons. At the same time, the sunflower crop will increase from 11.1 to 12.7 million tons, soybeans - from 3.7 to 4.4 million tons, and rapeseed - from 3.7 to 3.8 million tons. The wheat harvest will amount to only 17.9 million tons (20.2 million tons in 2022 and a record 33 million tons in 2021) as a result of a decrease in the sowing area by more than 2 million hectares.

According to the USDA forecast, wheat production in Ukraine in the 2023/24 FY will decrease compared to the previous season by 4.5 million tons to 16.5 million tons, exports to 10 million tons, and ending stocks from 3.34 to 1. 7 million tons

Even such a harvest will ensure the domestic demand and food security of Ukraine (especially in view of more than 7 million citizens who have left the country), but it will reduce the export potential, - the UZA notes.